Thursday, August 3, 2017

OF CHINESE PEACE, OR THE GRABBING OF CLAIMED TERRITORIES BY BEIJING.

PAX SINICA

If you live in the Pacific Region, understanding how and why the Chinese act and use propaganda to advance their agenda is essential.
China is extremely active in the whole Western part of the Pacific Ocean.

 THE KOREAN WAR officially started on the 25th of June 1950, when the troops from the North invaded the South, totally surprising the South Koreans and the Americans.


A counter offensive, with troops composed at a level of 80% by the USA, and 20% by the UN,
was lead by famous General Douglas Mc Arthur.
Mc Arthur was a proponent for total warfare, including Nuclear, Chemical, and Biological. (this included the frightening project known under the moniker "feather bombs" carrying the deadly spores of Anthrax)
Mc Arthur pushed the communist forces all the way back to the Yalu river (the official border line between North Korea and China.)
Convinced that Mao would not commit to a war against the United States, Mc Arthur even made plans to send water bottles from the Yalu River back to the President of South Korea.

BUT: As soon as the beginning of October 1950, (this date is of great importance) the Chinese engaged their own troops. They had secretly mobilized 1.7 million men , fully equipped with WWII
Soviet Surplus.

Soon, newspapers were mentioning the possibility of a WWIII. In fact it was more like the final settlement of WWII, which was really not yet concluded in Asia.
Chinese troops, first disguised as North Koreans, pushed back the coalition troops further south.

Offensives and counter offensives did not cease during the following three years.
The world even witnessed the first jets air battles, opposing directly the USAF and the Soviet Aviation. The Russian MIG 15 bested the Americans on many occasions.

The USA still dropped over half a million tons of bombs, making extensive use of Napalm.
(almost one and half millions of gallons of it) against civilian population and infrastructures.

Finally the death of Stalin, in March of 1953, paired with the firing of Mc Arthur by President Truman, brought a pause in the conflict and brought both sides back to the negotiating table.

During that period China engaged almost 3 millions troops in this war, which saw the death of
nine hundred and twenty thousand military personnel and between 4 to 5 Millions civilians.


It is the memory of these millions of victims of American bombs that North Korea is using to this day, to justify their war effort at any cost.









TIBET, THE FORGOTTEN WAR
The war in Korea kept another one hidden from sight, discreet, yet a lot more profitable to Chinese interests.

The invasion of Tibet
While the UN and the rest of the World were focused on the conflict in Korea, the Popular Liberation Army (PLA) attacked the tiny Tibetan Army. (8000 men), on October 7th 1950, in CHAMDO, in the contiguous province of KHAM, integrated since then  in the Shechuan province.

The PLA required only 40 thousand men to overwhelm in about 2 weeks the Tibetans, who were clearly better  prepared for prayer than for war.
This is how the Chinese flag was able to be flown for the first time ever, all along the Himalayas.

Beside gaining a unique military high ground, of roughly 2.5 millions km2 (which represent close to 40% of the modern Chinese territory) it also gained precious reserves of mine ore. (gold, uranium, chrome, coal, copper, mica, borax)
Mao Zedong was able in a single swoop to secure the largest reserves of water for Asia.

For the first time also, India was confronted in sharing four thousand kilometers of common border with China. This strategic upheavel  (common border between India and China) passed almost unnoticed for the rest of the world.

The emergence of the Dalai Lama, would not alter anything.
One could even advance that in view of the total failure of the "Tibetan Cause", that the Honorable Monk, served the Chinese interest, just like the famous Tibetan Cherry Tree hiding the proverbial bamboo forest.
Indeed, China liked it so much, that it used the plot to ask for more, pretexting that such region or another was theirs for the taking since it used to be used by "their" Tibetans.
This is how in 1962, again in October, China started a blitzkrieg against India, hiding one more time behind a well published international crisis: The Cuban Missiles Crisis.
China left the Indian territory, after almost a month, of its own accord, pocketing in the process new territories in the North of Kashmir. (Aksaichin) and maintaining a constant pressure on the Sikkim, Buthan and the Arnnachal Pradesh (a far Eastern Indian State about three times the size of Taiwan.)

One can only be stricken by the similarities of this scenario, with what is happening again right now.


President Trump appears to sue for a fight with Pyonyang. Going as far as taking direct sanctions against Chinese financial institutions, particularly the Dandong Bank, located in a border town of the same name located on the Yalu River.

On the military side, there is also a renewed sense of activities. Specially around the Paracels and the Spratleys, about the sovereignty of it, there are challenges by Japan, Vietnam, the Phillipines, Brunei and Taiwan.
After the passage of several American Navy ships through waters claimed by Beijing, the commander of the Pacific fleet, Admiral Scott H Swift, declared that he was absolutely ready to launch a nuclear strike against China if ordered to do so by the President of the USA.

For its part the PLA is also flexing its muscles, like never before, but mostly somewhere else.
Further to the West, on the slopes of the Himalayas, by provoking India and Buthan . Just like in 1950, the coupling of Korea and Tibet is being re enacted once more on the Borders of Buthan and India.

China just conducted massive Military exercises in Tibet. Pushing the threat south towards its double border with India and Buthan.

The goal of this Military concentration in the Himalayas is strategic. China is pushing for the acquisition of the plateau of Doklam, a small strip of Buthan which used to belong to Tibet, giving China a claim to it.
Mostly it would give China a balcony view right over the strategic pass of the Indian Siliguri.
This "chicken neck" as the Indians like to call it, is a corridor only 24km wide, closed on one end by Bengladesh, which is the only connection between India and its most Eastern State of Arunacha Pradesh. This is another claimed Chinese territory under its historical Tibetan ties.

THE PEARL NECKLACE STRATEGY

At the end of June 2017, a Chinese garrison started road work in the direction of this Buthanese territory. An evident provocation against which the 8000 strong Police and military personnel of Buthan are no more a threat of any consequence than the Tibetan warriors  were in 1950.
India , the military protector of Buthan answered by the mobilization of ten thousand men, well prepared for this scenario.

Beside all the military muscle flexing, the whole affair appeared to be less massive than originally advertised by China .






At least this sudden tension demonstrated how far ahead China was in the sector of disinformation.




The Chinese departments of Defense and of Foreign Affairs liberally blasted their propaganda rethoric by mobilizing their Media and their internet relays, that are funded to the tune of over 10 billion $  by the government.
The Empire of the Middle of course  posed as the victim of an Indian aggression, reminding India of the severe setback it suffered in 1962, promising an even more bitter lesson.
The very official internet website of the PLA, in English language: "China Military Online",
warned on July the 26th that India did not stand a chance against China, and advise India to retire.
Threatening  further, that "short of diplomatic solution, the hypothesis of an armed conflict could not be ignored"

This incident demonstrate that China is ready, able and willing to engage in psychological warfare.
Leaving India dead flat on the media stage, unable to react, except to reproduce the dozens of damming Chinese communiques.

The message is also targeted to the western countries. Hence, this strong reaction from Admiral Swift, cited earlier.
At first glance, this is where we stand for the moment
Except for the fact that in following Sun-Tzu's principles, a lot of ado here, most always hides another challenge there.

The first one being that China took ownership of the monopole of influence in Nepal, which border also touches on the Siliguri corridor (that famous chicken neck)
The other one is that Beijing has slowly invested itself in the soft power represented by Buddhism.

China has adeptly succeeded in this theater in the Indian State of Sikkim, befriending the local population with millions of dollars invested in religious donations and pastoral exchanges.
It has done similar things in Buthan over the last four years.

It is a strategy which has made its bones with great success in Taiwan, where the quasi totality of the Buddhist structure has been accredited by Beijing.

The Indian secret services are well aware of the challenge, even if the sagacity of Prime Minister Modi appears slightly asleep in regards to the Buddhist issue.

The third challenge for India is of course the Alliance between China and Pakistan, the traditional enemy of India since their independence and the partition of the country in 1947.
Things on this front could accelerate substantially, if one thing or another suddenly took a turn for the worse.


As far of the control of the Seas, Beijing would not mind seeing the Indian Ocean rebaptized the Chinese Ocean. In a new local version of the "Mare Nostrum" of Antiquity.

China has expended its famous Pearl Necklace in the region, by getting the guarantee of military use of several ports: In Burma, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and inaugurating its own base in Djibouti.

It happens that Indian territory spreads to the East of the Gulf of Bengal, thanks to its Archipelagoes of Andaman and Nicobar. These forward bases allow it the control of the Strait of Malacca which is vital for Chinese Maritime Lines.
India has been taking part in joint venture naval exercises for the last 20 years with both the USA and Japan. (the Malabar exercises)

This irritate China. The 2017 Malabar exercises happened to just have taken place from the 10th to the 17th of July.

In this context, the Himalayan protest can be analyzed as a way for China to affirm the end of  its
non interference in the Geopolitical world landscape.
Reminding in passing to India and its allies that the rules of the Pax Sinica are good both North and South, on land and at seas.

This development is far from being accidental. Everyone should pay attention.


1 comment:

  1. excellent analysis, but you could have added the sino-vietnamese conflicts (from 1979 and after...) which also illustrate your statement

    ReplyDelete