In politics, nothing happens by chance
The French do not seem to comprehend why suddenly the African french speaking world is rejecting them.
Their only explanation being that they are the victims of dark Russian machinations. In reality the Macron government is only harvesting the fruits of what previous administrations have sowed over the last 12 years. It has nothing to do with her History of colonialism, or the infamous "France Afrique", but rather it is the direct result of France's decision to align its defense policies with US strategic interests, rather than its own. The French medias have no answers to the questions on the latest wave of regime change hitting its former colonies. They simply do not understand the reasons of the rejection.
The old Marxist analysis of a blowback based on colonial exploitation are simply not convincing. The premium example given is the theory that France manages Niger's Uranium mining at a preferential low market price. While this sounds like an easy explanation, it is not based on realities. Another theory is that without Niger's uranium, France's nuclear energy sector would come to a stop. The problem with these theories is that even if the Niger's government wanted to embargo its exports towards France they would have to first deal with their Tuareg minority that controls the region were the mines are located. The other issue, is that Niger's Uranium represent only 11% of France's Uranium yearly purchases, bought at the world market going rate. By the same token France's Uranium reserves represent three times the yearly output of Niger's mines. The same reserves are sufficient to operate the Nuclear Electric grid in France for the next 12 years. Interestingly enough these Marxist theories are given a wide range on US sites like Democracy Now, or on the opposite side of the spectrum on outfits like " Redacted" who have taken the bite on this. The visceral anti French American instinct is perhaps at the origin of these biases, but a cursory watch of the coup leaders demands, could have shown that the putschists never even mentioned that issue.
The charges of Russian back channels influences are not any more credible. First of all, the Russians have not backed any of the putschists in Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso, Niger or Gabon. Second the Russian presence in the region only dates back to 2016, after their successes in Syria. In Fact Turkey and Egypt are a lot more involved in these countries, since the fall of Lybia. All the while the problems in the region go back to 2010 or in many cases to 2001. Forgetting the origins of these issues make it very difficult to make a clear assessment.
After the twin towers bombings of 9/11 2001, the US asked France to maintain its control over the region, until Americans could deploy their Africom plans, and give time to the Pentagon and US intelligence companies to establish their well run policy of chaos from the Middle East to Black Africa.
Progressively the French policies of Republicanism and Democracy were replaced by new tribal policies.
(It is to be noted, that these tribal policies, based on centuries of Ethno conflicts in the region, are now being hidden behind the veil of jihadism, which in fact is only surper-imposed on these issues. As researcher Bernard Lugan noted: "While you cannot explain everything by ethno conflicts, you cannot understand any local conflict without the ethnic factor")
On one hand it was a form of emancipation from the heavy handed French aid programs, but on the other hand it became a strikingly backward movement.
In 2010, President Sarkozy at the behest of the Obama administration, and specifically Secretary Clinton took the initiative to intervene in the Ivorian civil conflict. While the country was in the midst of a Tribal warfare, an ECOWAS * negotiation initiative, soon taken over by Kenya's Prime Minister, and cousin of Barack Hussein Obama, Raila Odinga attempted to settle the departure of the Ivorian President Laurent Gbagbo. The problem with the Gbagbo authoritarian regime, was that it had morphed from a CIA puppet government, into a government bent on protecting its people. Paris intervened militarily, right after the presidential election, with the goal to arrest Gbagbo, under the guise of ending a genocide, in order to substitute him with Alassane Ouattara a Burkinabe, and long time friend of the French ruling class. Later Laurent Gbagbo will be put on trial by the International Penal Court, which after a marathon type procedure, found him not guilty of genocide, and that De Facto France was not justified in intervening.
A year later in 2011, again at the request of Secretary Clinton, President Nicolas Sarkozy engaged France in Lybia. Here again, the narrative of an intervention was to stop a genocide, by a dictator against its own people. To land some credibility to theses allegations, the CIA which was pulling the strings, organized false testimonies in front of the council for Human rights in Geneva. In New York, not long after, the Security council of the UN authorized western countries to intervene, in order to stop a genocide which never existed.
In Russia meanwhile, Dmitry Medvedev chose to ignore the issue, while Barack Obama who had wished for this operation to be the beginning of his Africom project ended up being opposed by his own military. General Carter F Ham in command of Africom in Germany was against fighting alongside of the jihadists, he had fought against in Irak. (The US military was still sore about the CIA support of Muslim terrorists, to fight against Russia and her allies, often at the cost of hurting American forces. In the face of this strong refusal by his own military, Obama used Nato instead (mostly France and Great Britain), forgetting conveniently his own promise never to use the Alliance against a southern country. Albeit, Muhamar Kadhafy was captured, tortured and lynched, while Lybia was quartered in small warlord kingdoms.
Ironically, the Lybian Arab Jamahariya (people's republic) was not a real dictature, but rather a regime rooted on the principles of XIX century French socialism and the commune of Paris. The Jamahariya was the only African entity with the goal to unify the Arabs and the black Africans. Kadhafy's goal was to liberate the African Continent from western colonialism, just as he had done for his own country. He was ready to launch with the help of the IMF director Dominique Strauss Kahn a transnational currency with several African countries. (soon after Strauss Kahn was implicated in a sordid accusation of attempted rape by an Ivorian maid, at the French owned Sofitel Hotel of New York City). Since the demise of Kadhafy, Lybia and the region have been the theater of many crimes who were thought to be things of the past. Black Africans were massacred by Arabs, even though they held Lybian passports, others were enslaved, all under the noses of western armed forces, who did not intervene.
Poor African States, who used to be supported economically by Lybia, have since crumbled, starting with Mali (3) Arab Jihadists that NATO put in place in Tripoli have financed and armed some of the Tuareg movements, fighting black ethnic groups. The problem has now spread to the rest of the Sahel region* Francois Hollande who succeeded Nicolas Sarkozy at the Elysee Palace did not learn anything from these issues, and soon launched his own regime change in Mali, with the approval of the Obama administration. In March of 2012 while the mandate of President Amadou Toumani Toure was coming to an end, and that he had declared that he was not running for another mandate, a group of American trained officers led a coup against him, giving no explanation for their action The leaders of the coup interrupted the ongoing Presidential campaign, and nominated a transition president, namely Dioncounda Traore. This slight of hands was fully endorsed by ECOWAS which was now led by Alassan Ouattara. As expected Dioncouda Traore asked France for help in combating the jihadists who were attacking Mali.
Paris plan was to base its troops in Mali in order to open a new front on the south of Algeria, which was the real target of Paris. Algerian generals were well aware of the situation, and knew that they were the next target on the Africom to do list. This is why they brutally repressed an hostage taking operation by jihadists at the sprawling oil site of In Amenas. By doing so they sent a strong warning to France and the US. Not withstanding this reverse, the French army redeployed their troops, in order to launch operation Barkhane. Once again, the French army would do the dirty work for its overlord, the USA. Everything was planned to the last detail by Africom in Germany. This time around, the French would be supported by small contingents from the EU. Namely, Denmark, Spain, Estonia, United Kingdom, Tcheckia, and Sweden. Targets identified by Africom were destroyed.
At that moment, despite its excellent results, Barkhane is not a legitimate operation. Of course the official position is that western countries are there to help fight muslim extremism. While most people in the Sahel region are well aware that it was the same western countries who had created said terrorists in the region by destroying Lybia.
Lets step back a while: It is important to remember that this whole mess had started with the Pentagon's wish to destroy African political structures through their establishment of Africom, in a similar way that Centcom had started doing in the larger Middle East region. On May 2022, the under secretary of the US State department for political affairs, the nefarious radical neocon Victoria Nuland organized a meeting of an 85 countries coalition against Daesh in the country of Morocco. She then announced their next move. Daesh was reorganizing their movement in the Sahel region, and they were equipped with weapons originally earmarked for Ukraine. Soon the whole area could become a raging war theater. (4) The following November Nigeria's President Muhammadu Buhari confirmed the massive arrival of weapons in the Sahel and lake Chad basin area for the jihadists, which were originally supposed to go to Ukraine.
Faced with this existential threat, the military forces of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger took over power in their respective countries to protect their own populations.
One must also understand that for years now, African leaders have complained about France's support for the same extremists she pretends to fight. Here they are not complaining about the French Military, but rather about the role of France's secret agencies in support of the US agenda.
From the start of Operation Serval, Syrian jihadists were complaining that they were abandoned by France for the benefit of their Sahel terrorist brothers. Francois Hollande actually had to delay the deployment of French troops to give enough time for Qatari trainers of Malian jihadists to pull out. When the Russian foreign minister brought the issue to his french counterpart Laurent Fabius, this one jokingly answered him: " this is our version of real politik"
Not long after a sanctuary for Al Qaeda military bases was established between the cities of Ghat (near the Algerian border), and Sabbah (close to the Niger Border) right in the Fezzan desert, south of Lybia.* The well informed French weekly "le Canard Enchaine" affirmed that these schools for jihadists were organized and operated by British and French secret services.
Three years earlier, then Malian Prime Minister, Choguel Kokalla Maiga gave an interview to RIA Novosti which was widely read, shared and debated in the whole region, but not in the west, and certainly not in France, where no one, but for a few expert, is aware of it.
According to a recent report to the UN Security Council (ref. S/2023/636) filed by Niger's foreign minister Yaou Sangare Bakar, french agents liberated this past August imprisoned terrorists. Later they regrouped in a valley near the village of Fitili (about 28km/17+miles, northwest of Yatakala) where they led out their plans for a series of attacks in the area of the three borders. Not long after, during 3 operations (2 in Niger, 1 in Mali) the military of these countries captured 16 terrorist leaders.
The letter to the Security Council by Mr Sangare Bakar also underlined other important issues: the role of ECOWAS (5). Issues that are re-occurring since the regime change in the Ivory Coast. While ECOWAS own statutes do not allow for unilateral sanctions against one of its member, nor does the UN charter authorize it to take military actions. ECOWAS none the less took sanctions against Niger and mobilized troops to "re-establish Constitutional order"
In regards to Guinea and Gabon, things are a little different.
Wars are usually prepared well in advance. Today the Biden administration is transferring great numbers of weapons to the region, under the cover of the Ukrainian conflict. Tomorrow might already be too late.
It is in this context, that it is to say very surprising to hear President Macron lecture these States about Constitutional Order. Least of all, because these countries are in immediate danger, and that by placing his own troops at the service of the ambitions of the Biden administration and the neocons, he is simply betraying his own Constitution.
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