BORDERING ON HATRED

 Posted by Frenchie

THAILAND VS CAMBODIA

After attacking its Cambodian neighbor in 2025, Thailand annexed a swath of its territory, forcing hundred of thousands of civilians into an exodus and partially destroying Angkoran artifacts including the Temple of Preah Vehar, listed as a UNESCO World Heritage. What are the stakes of this invasion ?  It is all about the drawing of the border line between the two countries established in 1907.

Thailand spends an annual budget of six billions dollars per year for its defense, which is seven times the amount of Cambodia, whose troops are equipped with outdated equipment.

 This a world where the law of the jungle prevails. Where a State can raise a flag on its neighbor's land, destroying historical temples and fortifying its positions without fearing any condemnation or sanctions for its actions.

Pacta sunt servanda  (treaties must be respected) claimed the 1967 Vienna Convention. Obviously another time, another place. The conflict that oppose Thailand and Cambodia does not appear as a front page headline, but it has impacted the civilian population, killing people and throwing thousands of families on the roads to exile. 

An uneven fight.

On the 24th of July 2025, fighting exploded between the two kingdoms. This is not a novelty, but this time the combat is particularly violent. The forces are radically uneven. The Royal Thai Army (RTA) is comprised of 245 000 men, well equipped with a modern arsenal: tank, a modern artillery, as well as a Navy and Air Force. Against them 75 000 Cambodian poorly equipped troops, with Soviet Union age old disparate weapons, no Air Force and no anti air defense. Following the first initial assault by Thai troops, a precarious cease fire is reached under the hospices of Donald Trump. On December 7th of the same year, Thailand breaks the cease fire. This time the fighting last twenty days. The Thai Army seized a dozen of border sites to the North and West of Cambodia. In the process, they leveled down the Angkoran Temple of Ta Krabi and heavily damaged the Temple of Preah Vehar. In a communique published on February 18th 2026, Thai General Winthai Suvaree, spokes-person for the RTA confirmed what many military observers had already noted, by revealing that the Thai air to ground attacks had been planned well in advance.

The impact of these attacks in human losses is still not very clear. At this time, Cambodian authorities have claimed 130 dead, while unofficial sources put the number at four times that much, to which you have to add several hundred of severely wounded, as well as half a million displaced civilians. Since then, the RTA troops are waiting behind a network of bunkered containers, set up well outside the internationally recognized border lines, in Cambodian territory. These enclaves vary in size, but they are on average around 12km2, a territory that covered many villages and farmland, now abandoned. 

Thailand is rewriting its National History, by officially denying the anteriority of the Khmer Empire.

The roots of the disagreement

Nine months after the end of the fighting, about 80 000 civilians still have not been authorized to return to their houses. Until now Pagodas in the North and West of the Kingdom have been sheltering thousands of people who have lost everything. In the area of the steep hills of Mt Dankrek, the Thai Army is holding up the high ground, following the established military theory, that whoever holds the high ground, controls the low ground. Following the second Thai offensive in December, Cambodian troops have been pushed down in the valleys, where they deployed uneasily alongside the main roads. Ever since the last cease fire of December 27th, the front has remained frozen there.

While the Cambodians lost substantial territory, they fought courageously, despite being completely outgunned. The Thai Air Force conducted in depth strikes against roads and bridges, but also against Pagodas and homes which had no military value. War crimes have been, and continue to be committed. If you consult Thai social network, you discover a world replete with social insults, scenes of looting filmed and distributed by Thai soldiers themselves. 

Once upon a time, the Khmer Empire ruled the Indochinese peninsula from the IXth to the XVth century. At its peak, during the rule of  Jayaraman VII (1181-1218) its territory extended over the whole of Siam (Thailand), Laos, the Annam and the Mekong Delta. Later, in 1431, a Siamese army of the kingdom of Ayutthaya, conquered Angkor, sacked it and pilfered its riches, forcing the Khmers to flee. A somber period of 400 years, when Cambodia is occupied and vassalized, follows.  Ultimately in 1795, Siam annex the western Khmer territories including the site of Angkor Wat. Ever since the end of WWII which saw Siam claiming neutrality, while tacitly aligning with the Axis powers, Thailand has systematically attempted to re-write its own National narrative. Its official Historiography completely brushes over the existence of the Khmer Empire which it describes as a Siamese early civilization, in order to build a modern identity, constructed on borrowed fame, despite an undeniable corpus of Archeological evidence to the contrary.

This deliberate re-writing of History is not a simple quarrel of school textbooks, instead it is the foundation of modern Thai Nationalism, propped up by a systematic government propaganda. Over the years, it has become the fuel for a tenacious and murdering hatred. This revisionism of History is targeting the eradication of the memory of ancient Khmer Civilization for the stated goal of  seizing its archeological sites and appropriating its glorious past. On the other side of the coin of the carefully groomed image of the tourist postal card, you find instead the disturbing but very real face of a militaristic regime.

The Thai armed forces exert a major economical and political influence on the country.  Speculating generals portray themselves as the guardians of the three pillars of Thai Society: The Monarchy, Law and Order, and Buddhism. This is a voluntary Caste, that is repressive and which easily morphs into a Junta at the first sign of instability. This Caste did not hesitate to do so on 12 different occasions, since the implementation of the Constitutional Monarchy in 1932. Its last Putsch took place in May of 2014, which led to a sophisticated tightening of political rule. A Junta governed the country until 2019. The institutions were tightly locked in through the means of a new Constitution in 2017, which gave the RTA control of the Thai Senate.

 Despite this, three successive members of a single family: the Shinawatra, were able to become Prime Minister, giving civil society a voice, and tempering down the repressive ardor of the generals of the RTA. The first two were overthrown by Military Putsches, while the third one Paetongtarn Shinawatra, was removed on August 29th 2025, under the guise of "lack of ethics " following a phone conversation with the former Cambodian leader Hun Sen. It was the spark that set fire to the powder keg. The political error of the young female PM was not to have made the call, following a long held family tradition, but rather to have suggested during that call, a possible legalization of money games by the Thai legislature. This would have threaten to compete with the network of Cambodian border Casinos, owned by the Oknha.

The Oknha are Cambodian oligarchs close to the Phnom Penh regime. This proposition was of course unacceptable for Hun Sen, who promptly release the tapes of the conversation to the Thai press, creating a scandalous storm, leading to the prime minister being expelled.

Two opposing powers.

Hun Sen unseen consequence of his dubious maneuver, was the arrival into power of the far right movement: " The Party for Thai Pride", a radically xenophobic group whose leader Anutin Charnvirakul, has the backing of the most radical generals. Among them Boosin Padklang, the commander of the Eastern Military Region. Today's Prime Minister Charnvirakul, started the war under the pretense of "Buddhist Morale". While General Padklang directed the operations in an onslaught of military might and extreme brutality.

By nature Cambodia is not really bellicose.  It suffered too much during the CIA secret wars in the early 70s, and the subsequent genocidal Khmer Rouge regime. The collective memory of the country is still bearing the deep scars of these conflicts. Yet Cambodia is suffering from an unspoken malaise. In August 2023, Hun Sen ceded power to his son, Hun Manet (a West Point graduate) after 38 years of unilateral authoritarian rule.  A dynastic power which let the country fall under the influence of Chinese Triads. Among the intimate circle of the Hun family, the Oknha. 40% of the Cambodian GDP is held by these conglomerates. A proxy oligarchy with some of its members having close ties to the Chinese Mafia.

Among them: Ly Yong Phat, nicknamed the "King of Koh Kong", after his take over of this southern province, by practicing forced expropriations. Under the guise of economic development, the use of financial extraction made his fortune. In 2024, the OFAC (Office of Foreign Assets Control) from the US Treasury department, revealed that the walls of the Casinos of the LYP group were hiding "pig butchering" operations. An online boiler room scam intent on spoiling unsuspecting victims. These operations use captive individuals forced to work in detention, and unable to leave. Ly Yong Phat was accused of Human traffic, Forced Labor and Cyber Crimes, all his assets in the US were seized, his bank accounts were frozen.

Another dubious character is Chen Zhi, who is the perfect incarnation of dirty money management. Arriving from China at the age of 28 years old he created the Prince Group. Through this front, he transformed the resort city of Sihanoukville into a Chinese speaking enclave, filled with neon lights and girls bars. Money is flowing freely, and he soon gains access to the Hun Clan. Not long after, in 2020, a royal decree bestow on the Prince Group the title of Okhna.

The operation took such dimension, that in 2024 the UN released two successive reports, highlighting a "humanitarian crisis" within the Prince Group, which hid the slave like conditions of their scam centers, as well as the existence of clandestine banking operations geared towards the fei chien, a Chinese expression meaning flying money. Basically a cash laundering operation, with the help of crypto money. An international counter-operation led jointly by the British authorities and the FBI, ultimately brought a record breaking confiscation of US $ 15 billions in Bit coins.

Ultimately Zhi was arrested by the Cambodian police in January 2026 and extradited towards China. A few days later in Beijing, General Zhang Uxhia, Vice President of the Central Military Commission was arrested on suspicions of having been Zhi's mentor. This purge took place at the initiative of Xi Xinping who was being embarrassed with rumors tied to the Macao Triad 14k.

A silent annexation.

The Thai love to use the term Scambodia to describe their neighbor, and used it freely to justify their invasion. While it is true that Cambodia is, or at least was, a crossroad for online fraud, the latest statistics from the UN and Interpol about drug dealing and crime in general, give us a larger perspective about the region. Even during the hay days of the criminal oligarchs in Cambodia, they produced only 20% of the illegal trades within the Mekong regions. A revenue source believed to be around US $ 40 billions per annum. Most of that illegal trade is tied to the government of  Myanmar (formally Burma) controlled by a Junta, very ideologically and financially close to the Thai generals and the Special Economical Zone of the Golden Triangle in Laos, at the border of Thailand.

Faced with an abnormally large private debt of 90% of GDP, the Thai banking industry is confronted to  a huge demand for liquidity., which threaten a disastrous crash of the whole Thai banking system. Forensic accounting experts are suggesting that the Thai economy which is a lot more diversified than Cambodia, and aligned on the US $,  is under less scrutiny by international crime watch organizations, a fact that has led to Thailand becoming the main regional actor in money laundering for southeast Asia.

The reality of the reshuffling of the regional maps remains largely hidden behind the moral declarations of prime minister Charnvirakul and the also very real humanitarian challenges highlighted by the UN reports. It certainly is becoming clear that the goals of Bangkok are more geared towards controlling the flux of the illegal regional trades, rather than fighting it. This is a perfect demonstration of shadow theater, where appearances are more important than reality.

The central question about the occupation of Cambodia's territory, continues to be its temporary status, versus a total annexation. Article 42 of the Hague Convention defines the occupation by a military power, as being responsible for the civilian and humanitarian duties of the occupying force. Unfortunately the lack of enforcement of said article, in other theaters of occupation in Western Asia, does not encourage a positive forecasting. In fact on the frontline of the conflict, the famous fog of war does not give enough cover for the radical plans put in place by Thailand.

The Thai armed forces have been observed modifying the topography of the occupied territory, as well a slough of other modifications. In violation of the cease fire accords, Thailand has requisitioned civilian companies to bulldoze villages and open roads. In Preah Vihear, the military is building a road towards the Pagoda of Keo Sikha Kiri Svarat located 500 meters below the Angkor Temple, already heavily damaged by repeated bombing.

 This is part of a double prong approach by the Thais.  On a tactical level, it is creating a cauldron where the Cambodians are entrapped. On the Strategical level, it is preparing for a economic integration of the area. The tourism flux, could in a near future be enjoying the Angkor sites directly from Thailand, thanks to this historical revisionism.

Everywhere the Thais are systematically erasing all the outward signs of Khmer sovereignty. A symbolic example is the removal by the Thais of a Shiva Statue in the Temple of Ta Krabey, basically razed to the ground, but totally controlled by the RTA, under the laughable pretense, that it was an illegal symbol on Thai territory.

Redrawing existing treaties.

Behind the narrative of Thai propaganda, relayed to a T by the media, with words like dispute and quarrel Bangkok is hiding a much more serious issue of legal reality. Tempering down the real conflict between the two countries, ends up hiding a core principal of international law. Uti possidetis juris. Literally: you own what was yours. This dogma guaranteeing the stability of post colonial Nations strengthen the concept of the borders inherited from History. A guarantee of peace set in the stones of old treaties. During the 19th century, the Khmer Kingdom was just a shadow of what it once had been. Its territory which had been dismembered, one piece at the time, was witness of yet another conflict, between Annam and Siam 1841-1845.

Squeezed between the Elephant and the Dragon, the King of Cambodia, Norodom the 1st, turned towards France, and its leader Napoleon III for assistance. On August 11th 1863 Norodom signed the Treaty of Oodong, which made Cambodia a Protectorate of France. Both Siam and Annam turned back. Ultimately in 1904 and 1907 several treaties between Siam and France ceded back to Cambodia its western territories and the temples of Angkor Wat.

An International Commission armed with the technical tools of the time drew to the best of their abilities the border, which until today is the only recorded official border legally recognized between the two countries. Never less, since the independence of Cambodia in 1953, Thailand has been disputing this border. Thailand concentrated its dispute on the Temple of  Preah Vihear. In 1962, a ruling of the ICJ (International Court of Justice) confirmed the sovereignty of Cambodia over this territory. In 2008 after the recognition of the Angkor Wat Site, as a UNESCO world heritage, the tensions are rekindled. In 2013 the ICJ, once again recognized the Cambodian claim over the whole of Angkor Wat.

Following the 2025 bloody events, Phnom Penh once again addressed itself to the Hague for a final resolution on its 820km border with its Thai neighbor. At this time Bangkok's government refused to recognize the competency of the ICJ, just like it did not recognize the 2008 Treaty of Oslo on the illegality of the use of submunition bombs. Bombs Thailand used freely during its invasion of Cambodia, against civilian targets and World Heritage Sites.

A Damocles sword.

The Cambodian government is hoping for a diplomatic solution, a dream which does not appear realistic, in a world where the law of the jungle is overcoming the international laws established during the last 120 years. The Association of South East Asian Countries continues to observe in silence. France has promised to make its historical documents available, but remains in an uncomfortable neutral position. The US and China have remained silent on the subject. This environment is not leading to optimism for a diplomatic solution. It now has been over 52 years since the military occupation of 38% of Cyprus (a EU member)  by Turkey. This particular military take over was sanctioned by five UN resolutions, but neither the UN nor the EU have been able to sway Turkey. The most flagrant example being Israel attacks on virtually all its neighbors, and its colonization of foreign territories, despite more than 40 UN resolutions, over the last 75 years, while the world remains silent.   ( until recently)

Conclusion

The ultra national organizations established at the beginning of the 20th century have been reduced to just taking notes of the fait accompli and filing official protests. The pleas of Cambodia for an international recognition of its territory, most likely shall fall on deaf ears. This is what most countries have learned from the dismantling of the rules and treaties put in place after WWII. In a  fast increasing tipping of the balance of powers worldwide, this is one more conflict not to overlook. In the meantime, many of the neighboring countries are impacted by illegal immigration from these countries at war.

References:

Radio Free Asia

LeFigaro

UN report on Human trafficking

Interpol reports

The Diplomat

France, Ministere des Affaires Etrangeres

LITTLE KNOWN ORIGINS OF THE FBI

Posted by Frenchie    

During the past few years, the Federal Bureau Of Investigation aka FBI has come under a flurry of criticisms, many well deserved. The principal one being that some of the highest cadre of the agency have used the power of the Bureau, to threaten, intimidate and/or ensnare political opposition of the administrative State, mostly to defend or deflect criticism of major actors of the Democratic Party, including but not limited to the current administration. The President Elect in particular has been very vocal about the weaponization of the Bureau and the Justice Department to go after him and his supporters in several dossiers, which led many to feel that the country had drifted dangerously into habits more in tune with totalitarian regimes, and what some perceive as a two systems of Justice.

Some of the critics of these positions have poo pooed these accusations, by noting in particular that the "founder" of the FBI (long associated with the secretive and nefarious Edgar G Hoover) had stooped to more controversial and criticized methods,  and that consequently the Legislature had taken steps to modernize and enforce accountability of its leaders and agents. Therefore according to these critics, the "modern" FBI was not what its opponents were describing.

For the sake of avoiding confusion, I shall not address this issue, at this time, since many legislative and criminal investigations will go on, to give us a well deserved analysis of what did and did not happen, over the last 8 to 10 years, at and with the Bureau. Instead I will venture into a more historic and less known background of the FBI, and how it ties into the very old relation between France and the USA.

What might surprise many is that one of the key part of the origins of the FBI are found in France rather than in the United States.

Napoleon Bonaparte, the famous Emperor of France had several brothers. His younger sibling Jerome would be sent across the Atlantic as a young Naval Officer to further his education and experience in 1801. This is how Jerome Bonaparte became the founder of the Bonaparte family in the United States of America. Fifty years later in 1851 Charles-Joseph Bonaparte was born in Baltimore Maryland.

Charles-Joseph received a strict and demanding education, which ultimately led him to brilliant studies at the University of Harvard, where he obtained his Juris Doctorate, and later passed the BAR in Maryland in 1874. A year later he would marry Ellen Channing Day, with whom he did not have any heir. In 1879, he and his brother inherited a real estate fortune estimated at $1.5 million from their grand-mother and spouse of Jerome Bonaparte, born Elizabeth Patterson.

Charles Joseph is a devout practicing Catholic. In 1884 he strongly oppose the principle of free Public Schools, while he develops his law practice. He also becomes very active into the creation of reform leagues. He invest himself into the issues of Public administration. His fame widens at the local level, and he creates several newspapers, where he attacks crooked developers. He is then considered as one of the founding fathers of the anti corruption movement.

Soon his ideas attract a wider following at the national level, and starts attracting some political attention. This is how he first catches the attention of Theodore Roosevelt who will become President of the USA, and later win the Nobel Peace Prize in 1906.  The two men first meet in 1892 in Baltimore during a meeting for the promotion of new reforms where they are both guest speakers. Both are alumnus of Harvard, and naturally become friends. They both consider that the art of Government needs efficiency and intellectual know how, and therefore should avoid back room deals and nepotism. Based on these common views, they decide to work together.

At the dawn of the 19th century US political life is mostly based on a de facto control of policies by the Business community. Corrupt politicians are the norm, and the system is totally biased. The constitutional Republic as seen by the founding fathers has evolved into a corrupt system, where Big Business and their Trusts control entire sections of the industry and commerce. (not unlike the challenges we are facing today). Frauds are so common that the public no longer pays attention. Roosevelt and Bonaparte attempt to conciliate capitalist free enterprise with the interest of the workers, and wish to rein in the Cartels and their corrupt actions, in order to protect the most vulnerable. 

Roosevelt in particular encourages the "muckrackers" as he calls them to denounce the different abuses of the crooks who divert the democratic process, legally or otherwise for their own benefits. The movement becomes a groundswell for reforms that will ultimately carry Teddy Roosevelt to the Presidency.

In 1901, then Republican Vice President Roosevelt access the Presidency, following the assassination of President McKinley by the anarchist Leo Czolgosz. He brings along Bonaparte to help him push forward his progressist agenda, based on the principles of responsibility, Justice, and the fight against corruption. Roosevelt puts Bonaparte in charge of the repression of frauds within the postal services and the  Bureau of Indian affairs.

UNDERSTANDING ISRAEL'S WARS AGAINST LEBANON

 (by Frenchie)

Foreword

If you watch, listen or read the mainstream medias regarding Lebanon and Hezbollah for the last few months, you can easily be under the impression that poor little Israel has no other choice but to retaliate against the mean Hezbollah (considered as a terrorist organization by the majority of the western countries) and that they are doing so under their right of self defense. Yet the reality is very different from the accepted Israeli propaganda. Lets try to put this widening conflict in an historic perspective and attempt to comprehend what Lebanon has been facing and continue to be challenged on almost a daily basis.

(Summary) 

* Israeli terrorism and the civil war in Lebanon

* The Israeli-Lebanese war of 1982

* The assassination of Rafiq Hariri and the Israel war against Lebanon in 2006

* The invasion of Lebanon a one hundred years old zionist project 

To understand the deep roots of the new war of aggression against Lebanon by Israel, it is necessary to go back several decades and to be aware of the Israeli strategic objectives, as well as learning about the territorial expansion of the Jewish State, which includes Lebanon.

Israeli terrorism and the Lebanese Civil War.

The gradual autonomy of Palestinian organisations in Lebanon since 1968 created a situation not unlike that which had led to the"Black September" in 1970 in Jordan. Fatah which had taken refuge in Lebanon, is organizing operations against Israel, which in turn answer with aerial bombings on the Lebanese territory. Parallel to these events Israel arms and finances  Lebanese militias of different confessions (Christian, Druze, Shia and Sunni) that are opposed to the Palestinian presence in Lebanon dating back to the Nakbah of 1948. [1]

This strategy which consist of using christians against muslims in Lebanon with the intent to provoke a civil war and a partition of the country has been planned and put to paper by David Ben Gurion on February 27 1954 [2]

Ben Gurion

On May 16th 1954, Israel's Prime Minister, Moshe Sharett highlights the recommendations of the Chief of Staff of the IDF Moshe Dayan (famous for his eye patch)

" We  would only need to find an officer (Lebanese), even a simple major. We could easily win his cooperation, or purchase his loyalty in order for him to declare himself the savior of the Maronites. Then the Israeli Army would only need to enter the territory of Lebanon, occupy the necessary area, and install a Christian regime which would then ally itself with Israel. We could then annex the territories south of the Litani river, and all shall be for the best." 

This strategy will be applied to a T, 24 years later in 1978, when Israel took control of southern Lebanon, which ultimately would be handed over to a friendly militia established in 1976, who was in opposition to the Palestinian's presence in Lebanon. It was composed of Druzes, Shias, and Christians  equipped, trained and financed by Israel [3] 

On May 28th 1954 the Israeli Prime Minister wrote" the chief of staff endorsed a plan to put in place the targeting of a Lebanese officer willing to be our puppet in order to give the appearance that we answered a call for the liberation of Lebanon from its Muslim aggressors. [4] Civil war would ultimately explode from 1975 till 1990.

In his book "Rise and kill 1st" (The secret history of Israel's targeted assassinations) Israeli Military Chronicher Ronen Bergman revealed that between 1979 and 1982, the Israeli government created in Lebanon an organization who committed  numerous terrorist operations under false flags. A Mossad agent cited in Bergman's book recalls :" Many terrible things were done at the initiative of and with the support of Ariel Sharon. I have planned and at times participated in assassination operations undertaken by Israel. "Yet here we are talking about mass slaughters, with the only goal of creating chaos and panic among civilians. How do you justify sending bomb laden donkeys inside market squares and detonating them?" [5] In a New York Times article published January 23rd 2018 [6] Ronen Bergman reveals that very high ranking Israeli decision makers launched a campaign on a grand scale, of bombings with booby trapped, cars which led to the killing of countless numbers of innocent Palestinian and Lebanese civilians.

The main objective of this secret operation was to provoke the PLO (Palestinian Liberation Organization) to retaliate with bombings of their own in order to justify an Israeli invasion of Lebanon. These informations reported in great details in Bergman's book are sourced from testimonies given by Israeli officials directly involved, or by others with knowledge related to their positions.

Bergman recalls that in 1979, General Rafale Eitan, the Chief of Staff of Tsahal, launched with the help of General Avidgor Ben-Gal commander of Israel's Northern Region, the creation of a group whose mission was to execute terrorist strikes in Lebanese Territory with the approval of Eitan. Ben-Gal  recruited  general Meir Dagan (Israel best expert in special operations at that time) a man who later became the head of MOSSAD. The 3 of them created the Lebanese Front for the Liberation from Foreigners (LFLFF) . General  David Agmon, one of the key actor of this project declared the objective...

Meir Dagan

" The goal was to create chaos among Palestinians and Syrians in Lebanon, without showing our involvement, and to give them the feeling that they were constantly under threat, while re-enforcing their sense of insecurity"

In order to succeed Eitan, Ben-Gal, and Dagan recruited local Lebaneses who did not like Palestinians. During the period of 1973 until 1983 the "Front" killed thousands of individuals.

Bergman revealed that the operation often used explosive hidden in oil containers or in food cans put together in a metal shop located in Kibutz Mahanayim where Ben-Gal resided. These relatively small containers were then smuggled back into Lebanon. Rapidly, bombs started exploding inside the homes of PLO supporters in South Lebanon, killing all the residents. Later offices of the PLO were targeted. Bombs were also planted inside and around refugee camps causing substantial damages and numerous victims. Starting mid September of 1981, the use of booby trapped cars, motorcycles, bicycles and donkeys started exploding on a regular basis in palestinian neighborhood in Beirut and several other cities around Lebanon.

The book mentions in particular, bombings in Beirut and Sidon at the beginning of October and notes that during the short period of December 1981 no less than 18 bombs exploded near offices of the PLO, or in areas with heavy palestinian presence, causing a high number of casualties, claiming that an unknown group named the Lebanese Front for the Liberation from Foreigners (LFLFF) was claiming responsibility for the attacks. Ariel Sharon who was at that time the Minister of Defense of Israel, was hoping that these operations would force Yasser Arafat to attack Israel. In which case Tsahal would of course retaliate by invading Lebanon. The other hopeful result was that the PLO would take revenge against the Phalange, which  would then allow Israel to intervene as a defender and ally of the Christians, a strategy corresponding exactly to Israeli prime minister Moshe Sharett vision of 1954.

The Israeli/Lebanese conflict of 1982

The presence of the Palestinian organizations inside Lebanon gave the Israeli leaders the excuse, to implement their plan formulated for the take over of South Lebanon, all the way to the Litani River. This plan dated back to the birth of the revisionist zionist political movement. [7] In fact Israel will baptize their operation with the name of said river: "Operation Litani" in 1978 when they defacto  seized control of Southern Lebanon. A deployment of Blue Helmets UNIFIL (UN Interim Force in Lebanon) was supposed to stabilize the region, despite the PLO continuing occasional rocket launches into Israel. In 1982 Ariel Sharon wants to intervene in Southern Lebanon to diminish the operational capacities of the PLO; while his Prime Minister Menahem Begin wants to destroy the PLO to lessen the Palestinian claims in the West Bank and Gaza who are experiencing an upkeep  of mass protests since March.[8] 

Following Ben Gurion's Strategy designed in 1954, Begin wants in 1982 "A signed Peace Treaty with Lebanon, if Christians control the country" [9] Still Israel needs an excuse to attack Lebanon, an opportunity the PLO refuse to give Israel.  "The leadership of the PLO has multiplied its instructions to its own forces, forbidding any action which would give Israel a pretext." 

 It is within this context that the Israeli ambassador to London, Shlomo Argov is the victim of an attack after a diplomatic reception on June 3rd 1982 [10] The investigation shows that the operation was put together by a sleeping cell of the Abu Nidal group [11] By then the order giver is still unknown. Several theories are brought forward. The most credible is that of Israel. This option answers the question of the calendar, since the order was given on May 25th, but it seems difficult to phantom that an Israeli  ambassador would have been selected as a target... Another version is of a less radical option , with a manipulation leading to a vague provocation without goal, a sort of general order [12] In fact at the same time of the operation Abu Nidal is in Poland, therefore the order would have had to come from one of his number 2, particularly one who had been accused often in the past to have been easily manipulated by the Israeli services[13]

Not withstanding, Israel had its excuse now.

Ariel Sharon

Making absolutely no distinction between Abu Nidal and the PLO, Tsahal mobilized its available forces, which amounted to 76k men who then entered Lebanon June 6th 1982, reaching Beirut which they lay siege to , following a bombing by the Israeli AF against West Beirut on June 4th, which killed 60 and wounded 270. In August of 1982 after 70 days  of constant bombings by Israel, an accord is reached following an International Peace initiative to allow for the evacuation  (demanded by Israel) of all members and leaders of the PLO, towards several countries, most notably Tunisia and Sudan which is finally achieved by September 1st 1982.

The Lebanese President, Maronite Christian, Bachir Gemayel who is favorable to a non aggression agreement with Israel, is assassinated on September 14th 1982. Christian Phalangists in coordination with Tsahal (which has continued its bombardments of the refugee camp of Chatilla, and its surrounding neighborhoods) are planning their revenge. They enter the camps of Sabra and Chatilla (from the 16th  of September until the 18th) as soon as the Israelis stopped  the bombing. During these two days they systematically massacred  1390 people, including women and children, to which you must add several hundred combattants. [14]

Bashir Gemayel

Israel who had planned to be seen as liberators, instead endup being perceived as occupiers. Shia armed groups are being formed, and they later will constitute the nucleus of what will become Hezbollah. (Founded in June of 1982), as a resistance movement against Israel invasion. The liberation of South Lebanon would become the principal goal of these armed groups. Ultimately they would determine Israel as their main mortal enemy. Hezbollah ended up chasing Israel's army out of South Lebanon- except for the Sheeba Farms, and a few small areas south of the "Blue Line" on the 25th of May 2000 [15]

The assassination of Rafiq Hariri  and the Israeli War against Lebanon, 2006.

Businessman and former head of the council of Ministers of Lebanon, Rafiq Harriri died on February 15th 2005, in the explosion of a car bomb. At that time, and before any serious inquiry was launched, the collective West pointed the finger towards Syria. As a consequence, the Syrian Army (which had acted as a buffer between the warring parties) left the Lebanese territory two months later, in April 2005, ending almost 3 decades of presence in Lebanon.

Rafiq Hariri

In reality the death of Rafiq Hariri was only a pretext. In fact a UN resolution, at the initiative of the USA (under George W Bush) and France (under Jacques Chirac) had been adopted by the UN security council (resolution 1559) prior to the assassination. It planned, beside several other issues, the evacuation of all foreign troops out of Lebanon. Namely, Syrian troops in charge of civilians security under the Taef agreements, and Israeli armed forces occupying the so called Shebaa Farms, which is the main regional water reservoir for the area.

The admitted goal of the USA was to prevent Syrian support for the reelection of President Emile Lahud. For Jacques Chirac it was the "common approach with the US for the stability for the region. Maybe we did not have exactly the same intentions" [16] . According to some analysts, Chirac was trying to prevent an American military intervention, while re-enforcing the political power of his friend Rafiq Hariri, a close ally of the Saudis [17] in the struggle with Emile Lahud, an ally of Hezbollah. 

After all, one of the details of UN resolution 1559, was the prevention of another mandate of President Emile Lahud. The main reason being his opposition to the Syrian evacuation, and the disarmament of all militias, including that of Hezbollah.

Hezbollah

Hezbollah was at the time (and still is today) the only real guarantee of the security and territorial integrity of the Lebanese territory. Despite the Syrian pullout, Emile Lahud  saw his presidential mandate extended, by a very large majority. Six countries had officially declared that resolution 1559 amounted to an ingerence into the internal affairs of Lebanon.  These countries were: Algeria, Brazil, China, Pakistan, the Phillipines, and Russia.

During the Syrian military pullout, the head of the Lebanese Army, General Michel Suleiman, "thanked Syria for sending its army to stop the partition of the country ", during the civil war 1975/1990 [18]. A partition project whose 1st planner had been David Ben Gurion in the 1950s. In 1982 a High ranking administrator of the Israeli Foreign Ministry, Oded Yinon updated Ben Gurion's project in a document titled: "A strategy for Israel in the 1980s"  [19]

From all indications, the untimely death of Rafiq Hariri, and the following western propaganda, had only one objective: weakening Lebanon, while opening a new opportunity for a new Israeli invasion. On July 12th 2006 Tsahal attacked Lebanon. In that regards, both John Mersheimer and Stephen Walt reported that: "the Israeli had informed the Bush administration well in advance of their intention to attack Hezbollah, and that Washington had given them the green light. [20]

The Israeli Global Strategist Gerald Steinberg confirmed this fact during the war, in July of 2006. "Of all the wars Israel has undertaken since 1948, it was the best prepared one. In more ways than one, we started  planning for this war as early as May 2000, right after our pullback from Southern Lebanon. It became apparent to us, that the international community did not have the will to stop Hezbollah to build stocks of weapons to confront us. The military campaign planned to last 3 weeks, which we are witnessing now was designed as is, in 2004. It has been now 2 years since we ran exercises and simulations to finalize every details of the operation" [21]

The Israelis started by bombing many infrastructures in southern Lebanon and in Beirut itself, targeting both civilians and combatants without distinction. [22] Aurelie Daher emphasize in her book Hezbollah mobilization and power : "The majority of civilian casualties during the 33 days war were killed during bombing runs which targeted neither Hezbollah, nor their supply network. Tens of thousands of Lebanese civilians are being targeted, in the same way that the Cadre of Hezbollah are targeted." It looks like the Israeli Army finally recognized in a semi official way that :" The institutions of the Lebanese State as well as Lebanese civilians were also targeted in a logic of both collective punishment and as a way to put pressure on Hezbollah".[23]

During that period Israel used 3000 bombs a day while Hezbollah used a total of 3900 rockets for the whole three months of the conflict. [24] Despite these facts, the security council of the UN will only target Hezbollah for sanctions in a resolution put forward on September 15th 2006. Resolution 1701 banned any supply of arms and materiel, it also banned services to entities or individuals located in Lebanon. [25] clearly the objective was to weaken Hezbollah quite substantially .

On another topic, the inquiry launched into the assassination of Rafiq Hariri by the International Criminal Court (ICC) at the Hague, which originally had tried to find proofs about the alleged culpability of the Syrian State, or at least find proofs establishing the guilt of Hezbollah, coincidentally rendered its findings on August 18th 2020, exactly two weeks after the suspicious explosion which leveled the Port of Beirut. After a trial that lasted six years, the French daily Le Figaro  reported that the Court found the principal suspect, Salim Ayyash 56yo guilty of the suicide attack in Beirut which had killed 22 people, including Rafiq Harriri.  While underlining that the attack was politically motivated, the ICC affirmed that it had not found any proof , allowing to establish a direct connection between the explosion, and the Hezbollah or its Syrian ally. The only thing the Tribunal was able to establish was an individual presumed to be a member of Hezbollah. 

Despite the total absence of any glimmer of proof pointing to Hezbollah, Saudi Arabia, a supporter of Israel called for sanctions against Hezbollah. [26]

German criminologue Jurgen Cain Kulbel (former investigator for the criminal police of the German Democratic Republic, turned investigative journalist after the German reunification) published in 2006 a counter investigation of the work realized by the UN commission, led by the former German prosecutor Detlev Melhis into the assassination of Rafiq Hariri. He instead followed the Israeli connection. His detailed work, heavily influenced the Lebanese General Security investigators. In June 2006, they subsequently  arrested seven individuals suspected of acting for the Mossad. They established their participation into four political assassinations, and continued to look for their eventual connection with the attack against Rafiq Hariri. [27]

Invading Lebanon, a century old Zionist project.

A constant idea of the zionist policies, ever since the establishment of a Jewish homeland in Palestine has been territorial expansion. Lebanon has always been part of the territories set upon as a target by the Zionist entity.

As far back as 1918 in a book published in Yiddish, David Ben Gurion the founding father of Israel, describe the borders of the future state as including all of Palestine, southern Lebanon all the way to the Litani river, part of Syria, a large part of the Jordan kingdom, as well as the Peninsula of the Sinai.[28] Rabbi Fishman, who represented the Orthodox party Mizrahi in the executive committee of the Jewish Agency, declared in his testimony in front of the UN Special Investigative Committee, on June 9th 1947: "The Promised Land includes all territories between the Egyptian River to the Euphrate, and includes part of Lebanon and Syria" [29] 

If Hezbollah did not exist. the southern part of Lebanon would still be occupied by Israel, just as the Golan Heights and the West Bank.

Notes

[1]  Page 229 The Israel Palestinian conflict in 100 questions. J.C Lescure, Taillandier 2018,2021

[2]  Confidential letter of David Ben Gurion dated January 27, 1954. Published in 1979 as an annex to his memoirs, and in the memoirs of Moshe Sharett. Tel Aviv, Om Oved Editions 1969, 1974

[3] Page 229 The Israel Palestinian conflict in 100 questions. J.C Lescure, Taillandier 2018,2021

[4] Moshe Sharett, Personal Journal (8 tomes) Tel Aviv,  Maariv Editions 1978. Cited passages by Le Monde Diplomatique: An old Israel dream: "Even a simple Major" September 1982, Page 13

[5] Remi Brulin, "When Israel created a terrorist group to create chaos in Lebanon" Orient XXI, June 20/2018. https://orientxxi.info/lu-vu-entend...

[6] Ronen Bergman, "How Arafat eluded Israel assassination machine" New Yor Times, Jan.21 2018 https://nytimes.com/2018/01/23/...

[7]Y. Hindi, Comprendre le conflit Israelo Palestinian, Kontre Kulture 2024

[8] Jean Claude Lescure The Israeli Palestinian conflict in 100 questions, p230

[9] Jean Claude Lescure. The Israeli Palestinian conflict in 100 questions, p230

[10]Henry Laurens, The Palestinian Question, Tome 4, Fayard Editions 2011, page 809

[11] It is the Revolutionary Council Fatah, created in October 1974, following the split with the historical Fatah of Yasser Arafat

[12] Henry Laurens, The Palestinian Question, Tome 4, p 810

{13] Henry Laurens, The Palestinian Question, Tome 4, p 810

[14]  Henry Laurens, The Palestinian Question, Tome 5, p 49-52

[15] It is in fact a demarcation line between the two countries, according to the armistice agreement of 1949. It is not the Internationaly recognized Border Line, known as the Paulet-Newcombe Line of 1923. Seven Lebanese villages are located south of the Blue Line: Malkiya, Kadas, Nabi, Yusha, Hunin, Saliha, Tarbikha and Abeil el Qamh.  "22 years ago Israel left Southern Lebanon in shame" Fatma Bendhau, Anadolu Agency May25 2022. https://www.aa.com.tr/fr/monde/il-

[16] Interview of Jacques Chirac July 14th 2006

[17] https://monde-diplomatique.fr/1....

[18] https://www.nouvelobs.com/monde/200.....

[19] Oded Yinon " A strategy for Israel in the Nineteen Eighties" Published by the Association of Arab-American University Graduates, Inc , Belmont, Massachussetts, 1982 Special document #1 (ISBN 0-937694-56-8)

[20] Stephen Walt and John  Mersheimer: "The Israel Lobby and US foreign Policy" September 2 2008

[21] Cited in Matthew Kallman "Israel set war plan more than a year ago": Strategy was put in motion as Hezbollah began increasing its military strength" San Francisco Chronicle (online) 7/21/2006

[22] https://www.lesclesdumoyenorient.com

[23]Aurelie Daher, le Hezbollah, mobilisation et pouvoir. Paris, PUF collection Proche Orient, 2014, p291

[24] L'Orient-le-Jour, Guerre de juillet 2006, deja 10ans. Quel Bilan, Quelles Lecons? 7/12/2016 https://www.lorientlejour.com/article...

[25] https://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriSer....

[26] https://www.lefigaro.fr/flash-actu/...

[27] Mordakte Hariri, Unterdruckte Spuren im Libanon, Edition Zeitgeschichte Band34, 2006 Assassination of Hariri no proofs against Syria, interview of Jurgen Cain Kulbel by Jurgen Elsasser, Junge Welt April 11 2006

[28] Benny Morris, Righteous Victims, p 75 cited by  Walt and Mersheimer "The Israel Lobby and US foreign policy" page 418 # 60

[29] Oded Yinon " A strategy for Israel in the Nineteen Eighties"  Published by the Association of Arab-American University Graduates, inc, Belmont MA 1982

Concluding with current information.

As it is often the case, the events bypass us at great speed. As I finished putting this essay to paper, events in Syria have spiraled into a whirlwind of events, few of us foresaw.  While many events depicted here can find parallels into some of the tactical acts we are experiencing in 2024, IE: the fight to a standstill by Hezbollah, the aerial bombings of the IAF, etc, the complexity and speed of things happening as you read this, will need an analysis which will need time to put together. Beware of easy and simplistic explanations.

UPDATE ON UKRAINE, AND GLOBAL OIL PRICES

Posted by Frenchie

It is very clear that Russia is winning the war in Ukraine. Russian forces are advancing in the southern, central and northern fronts in the Donbass. Russian advances are in keeping with the Russian way of war. They move methodically, carefully and with massive force. They use a combination of missiles, bombers, artillery and drones to condition the battlespace and degrade Ukrainian defensive positions. The Russians also  use encirclement tactics (often referred to as a cauldron) so that the Ukrainians cannot retreat and are left with no choice but to surrender or die.

The Russian advance is based solely on tactics and strategic objectives. They are not operating on anyone's political schedule. When the Russians approach surround and eventually  capture a major town or small city, it is because of its logistical significance as a railroad or a highway hub (or both) and as a critical link in Ukraine's supply network. Once the objective is achieved, the Russians have not only gained territory, but they have also cut off other Ukrainian defensive positions from resupply. Then this entire process is repeated with new objectives in sight.

The Russians are methodically moving toward capturing all Ukrainian territory east of the  Dnipro  river including the major cities of Kharkov, Kramatorsk and Slovyansk. The war will not be over until the Russians have also retaken Kherson and finally Odessa. The Russians will also soon move to retake portions of Russian territory south of Kursk that the Ukrainians invaded last summer. Again, the Russians are surging troops from Russia (not from the Ukrainian  battlespace) and slowly creating a cauldron around the Ukrainian invaders. Their annihilation will come soon unless they surrender first.

Finally the Russians will complete the destruction of the Ukrainian power grid and energy system over the next two months, which will leave Ukrainians freezing this winter and trigger a mass migration of Ukrainian civilians to Romania, Hungary and Poland.

Russia will not negotiate with the dictator Zelensky; his electoral term having expired last May, and he has been ruling as a dictator under martial law ever since. So much for the US supporting "democracy" in Ukraine! There is no democracy left there. It's up to the Ukrainian Neo Nazi elites to depose Zelensky, choose a new leader and sue for peace or else fight to the bitter end.

Despite the significance of this protracted endgame, the impact on global oil prices will be small. Russia is working closely with Saudi Arabia and OPEC to limit output and maintain prices at the highest level the market will bear. The US and the EU foolishly maintain sanctions on Russian exports of oil and natural gas that have the effect of keeping prices high and thereby helping the Russians.

It is somewhat ironic that the fastest way to defeat Russian aspirations in Ukraine would be to open up exploration, drilling, fracking and new oil fields in the United States. If the US adopted a "drill baby drill" posture (including finishing the long delayed Keystone XL pipeline from Canada) the price of oil could be driven down to $40.00 per barrel or lower. That would starve Russia of the hard currency needed to support the war. Instead Biden has done the opposite, which has helped keep  the Russian economy on a prosperous war footing.

 Now that Trump has won his election, he will force Ukraine to negotiate with the Russians and will also open up US oil production in ways that reduce global prices and help bring the Russians to the negotiating table. Trump will also end the Green new deal scam. The Trump policies should help push oil prices toward a $40.00 per barrel or lower.

That being said, there is a force more powerful that the outcome of the war that will have the largest impact on global oil prices. That force is the coming synchronized global recession. This recession by itself and without reference to the war will push oil prices lower. 

Conclusion: Oil prices are heading lower, not because of the war but because of a global recession. That drop in oil prices will be accelerated with Trump in power because of his "drill, baby drill policy, combined with his dismantling of the Green New Deal and coming to terms with Russia in Ukraine.

 

REVISITING THE DEATH OF EBRAHIM RAISI & HOSSEIN AMIR_ABDOLLAHIAN

 Posted by Frenchie:

An helicopter carrying several Iranian dignitaries crashed in the Dizmar Forest, on May 19th of this year, not far from the Aziri Border. All its occupants: pilots and passengers died. Among the deads, President Ebrahim Raisi, as well as Iran's Foreign Minister, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian. 

The helicopter was a vintage American model: Bell 212. Upon first reports it did not transmit any distress signal, and strangely enough its transponder was turned off. The GPS of the occupants cell phones did not allow for them to be located. A very loud explosion was heard in several surrounding villages. Iranian security services immediately contacted Turkish authorities who deployed several "Akinci" drones to locate the crash site, within 12 hours after the initial report. The aircraft was part of a convoy of three helicopters. The other two aircrafts did not report any incidents. They did not witness the presidential helicopter mishap. According to security procedures in place, members of the government are to be separated aboard different vehicles while traveling. Why these procedures were not adhered to , has so far not been explained. This incident happens at a time when Iran and the United States are conducting advanced negotiations both in Oman and in New York.

Meanwhile, Israeli leaders responsible for the April 1st, Iranian diplomatic compound bombing in Damascus which led to the death of General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, continue to present Teheran as the number one public enemy to world peace. In reaction to the bombing of its consulate and subsequent death of the commander of its Al Quds force, Iran attacked Israel on April 13th and 14th, demonstrating its capacity to strike targets of its choice within Israel, with hypersonic missiles without Tel Aviv and/or its allies being able to stop them.

The crash comes at a time of rapprochement between Iran and Azerbaijan, which until recently had excellent relations with Israel.

Turkey foiled a coup d'Etat and an assassination attempt against president Erdogan, less than a week before the disappearance of President Raisi

Ebrahim Raisi was known to be a rigid character, and totally devoted to the leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, whose instructions he strictly enforced. He was often criticized by its opponents for his lack  of initiative and his inability to grasp anything about the domestic economy. While he has shown great harshness against the women's movement, it never reached the cold savagery with which he cracked down against the communists at the early stages of the Iranian Revolution. 

In foreign affairs he unconditionally supported the Shiites militias throughout the Middle East, as the guide of the revolution instructed. He made some notable progresses by having Iran join the BRICS, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), as well as the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) as full member of these organizations. Last but not least, he was on the verge on concluding a new agreement with the USA, to the great displeasure of Tel Aviv.

As for the Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian he was appreciated by all his interlocutors. He had successfully re-established relations with almost all Arab leaders whose language he spoke. 

In the interim, Vice President Mohammad Mokhber will serve as president until the June 28th Presidential elections, while Ali Bagheri will serve as foreign minister until then.

As of now, it is still unclear which candidates will be allowed to run for office. Candidates can be disqualified for non conformity with Islam by six of the theologians of the Council of Guardians of the Constitution, who are appointed by the Guide of the Revolution Ayatollah Khamenei. Candidates can also be removed for non compliance with the Constitution by a unanimous vote of all the 12 members of said council.

The main potential candidates for the Iranian Presidential Elections are:

*Mahmoud Ahmadinejad : Former President of the Islamic Republic

*Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf: Current speaker of the Majis ( Parliament), he is a strong advocate for the poorer in the population.

*Ali Larijani: Former Speaker of the Majis (Strong supporter of the Islamic Revolution).

* Mohammad Moklaber: Current interim President (supports the Middle Class and small businesses)

*Mohsen Rezai: Former commander of the Revolutionary Guards, Intelligence Corps.

*Hassan Rouhani: Former President of the Islamic Republic. Support Free Traders.

*Ali Shamkhani: Former Head of the Supreme National Security Council. (recently fired for having allowed a British spy to penetrate his entourage.) Played a central role in the rapprochement with Saudi Arabia.

It is almost certain that both Ahmadinejad and Rouhani shall not be allowed to run, because they are too independent from the Supreme Leader. 

Washington almost immediately after the incident denied any involvement in the crash. Suspicions that weighed on the United States quickly shifted to Israel.

Meanwhile, Chinese Leader Xi Jinping wrote: " The tragic death of Ebrahim Raisi is a great loss for the Iranian people, and the Chinese people have also lost a great friend. The Chinese people and its government attach great importance to the traditional friendship between Iran and China. We believe that the combined efforts of both sides will allow for the continuation and consolidation of the Chinese-Iranian strategic partnership".

In this context the Chinese Foreign Minister, Mr Wang Yi called on each and every member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) to strengthen their cooperation in the face of terrorism, separatism and religious extremism. Everyone survival is at stake Mr Wang added.

WILL ISRAEL DRAG THE USA DOWN THEIR SUICIDAL ABYSS?

 (Posted by Frenchie)

While the eyes of the World are frozen on the images of massacres of civilians, in Israel, Gaza and the West Bank, most people remain blind to the tectonic changes that are occuring throughout the world , in reaction to this drama, as well as the deep divisions within the political environment in Israel and the USA.

Everywhere around the world, Jews and Arabs are getting together to demand peace and let go of their pain. Worldwide, the realisation that the ongoing Ethnic Cleansing in Gaza could not take place without the financial backing and armament of the United States has awaken strong feelings. In Africa, South America and Asia, countries are recalling their ambassadors from Tel Aviv, and wonder out loud if they should recall their ambassadors from Washington DC.

While it appears that the Biden Administration has reluctantly looked on, it certainly did more than authorize the bloody retaliation, by providing billions of dollars and armament. The US is petrified that they might loose their hegemonic power, following their defeat in Syria, in Ukraine and what looks like another possible defeat in the Middle East. Since the Armies of the "Empire" are no longer feared, what will be the incentive to continue dealing in dollars, rather than your local currency? When that reality hits home, how will Washington continue to print money, to sustain its level of life, finance endless wars, and unchecked immigration?? 

What will be the consequences of this current crisis, no matter the outcome? No matter if the Middle East rises up, or if Israel eradicates Hamas at the price of thousands of lives on both sides, the world will not be the same.

The important factor is that while President Biden had strongly warned Israel against moving the Palestinians to Egypt, or to eradicate the Palestinian People from the Earth; Netanyahu simply did not listen at all.

The Jewish Supremacists are acting today, as they did in 1948, when the United Nations voted for the creation of two States, one Palestinian, one Jewish; the Jewish armed groups self proclaimed their independence, even before the frontiers had even been settled. Jewish supremacists and terrorist groups expelled millions of Palestinians from their own homes (the Nakhba) and assassinated the UN Special envoy and several of his entourage, when he came to finalize the establishment of the two States. Following these two acts of terror, an alliance of seven arab countries (Saudi Arabia, Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, Egypt, Jordan and North Yemen) tried to intervene, but were quickly swept aside with the help of the USA. Today they don't listen to their protectors, and engage in the unrestricted massacre of civilians. This time however they are not taking in consideration that the world is watching through the modern medias that did not exist then, or even 50 years ago, and that more likely than not, no one will come to their rescue. At a time when  the Shias are accepting the concept of a Jewish State, their extremist's madness threaten the survival of said State.

We just need to go back a little more than 30 years to remember how the Soviet Union collapsed. Following a catastrophic accident, the State had not been able to protect its own citizens. More than 4000 soviet citizens were killed while trying to save their compatriots following the accident at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant, in 1986. Many survivors started questioning the reasons of their acceptance of a authoritarian regime 69 years after the October Revolution. 1st Secretary of the SUCP Mikhail Gorbachev, wrote that it is then, that he realised that the Regime was in danger.

Following the riots in Kazakhstan, the demonstrations in the Baltic republics, and in Armenia, Gorbachev modified the Constitution to sideline the old guard of the Party. It was too little too  late to stop the raging fire that engulfed Azerbaijan, Georgia, Moldavia, Ukraine and Bielorussia. The uprising of the  Young East German Communists against the Brejnev doctrine, led to the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989. The crumbling of the State and Economic powers in Moscow, led to the stopping of all the aid programs to their allies (including Cuba). Finally, the dissolution of the Varsaw Pact, and the implosion of the Union in 1991, were the last nails in the coffin, of an empire many had thought would be eternal.

This ineluctable process, started under Clinton, continued by Bush Jr and Obama, which had been slowed and delayed during the Trump Administration, has restarted, and accelerated during the Biden ghost  Administration, to now become a clear and present danger for the American Empire. The existential question for the USA is not to know how far will Netanyahu's Revisionist Zionists are willing to go, but rather until when will the neocons and other US warmongers will support the Israeli extremists?? When will Washington decide they have more to loose in letting civilians being massacred in front of the whole world, instead of reigning in their own pitbull, in the Israel Government?

Biden has the same problem in Ukraine. After the dismal failure of Zelensky's vaunted counter-offensive, which led to hundreds of thousands of unnecessary Ukrainian losses. Russia is no longer choosing to destroy the military equipment, that Washington replace almost immediately, instead they are now eliminating the personnel that operates that armament. Russian forces are now acting as a huge grinder, that relentlessly chews every single Ukrainian soldier sent to attack their lines of defense. Kiev is now unable to find replacement for their lost soldiers, whole units are surrendering rather than being annihilated, and officers often have no other choice than to shoot their own troops for refusing to fight.

While many voices in the US, in Ukraine and in Israel are being raised to advocate for the replacement of the extremists in power in both Ukraine and Israel, it is not an easy task to achieve while combats are still going on. Yet, anything short of that obvious solution will spell disaster for the three countries.

President Biden (or his handlers) know well  that he needs to replace his puppets in both Ukraine and in Israel; just as 1st Secretary Gorbachev had to replace his clueless representative in Kazakhstan. The risk being that there will be an generalisation of the opposition against these corrupt leaders. Once you let it be known that the head of a US political ally can be replaced, then you also let these corrupt individuals know that they should flee before being sacrified. As Dr Kinsinger once said: " it is dangerous to be an enemy of the United States, but it is fatal to be one of its friends".

This process is not only ineluctable, it is also inexorable. At this point and time, and because of his initial errors, President Biden has very little choice, he can slow down the process, he can defer its consequences, but he cannot stop it.

Western People, and their leaders must take radical initiatives to get out of this quagmire, without waiting to be abandoned, like Cubans were during the infamous period of the "Special Era". This is an urgency, the last ones to react, will be the ones left holding the bill. Already many states around the world, are elbowing their way to escape, and are now lining up to join the ranks of the Brics and/or the Shangai Organization for Cooperation. 

Even worse than Russia which had to separate themselves from the Baltic States, the United States must prepare to be confronted by popular uprisings. When Washington DC will no longer be able to impose the dollar as the international monetary exchange, and that consequently its living standards will collapse, poor regions will refuse to obey the National Government, while the rich States will declare their own independence. As an apparte, two of the richest States of the Union are California and Texas. The only two States that could legally separate from the Union, due to the treaties that brought them in the United States. [1] It is very likely that a breaking of the United States would lead to a bitter civil war.

Should this scenario realize itself, this would be a catastrophe for the rest of the western world, with NATO and the EU soon collapsing, once the hegemonic power being in turmoil. Germany, France, the United Kingdom would reverse to their old rivalries, having failed to address them upstream.

Should the present course of affairs continue in the Middle East, Israel and the American Empire are condemned to disappear.  As it has been proven through world history, going against the tide of  that History invariably leads to more wars and more unnecessary deaths.

LIFTING THE VEIL OF CENSORSHIP TO MAKE SENSE OF THE LATEST MESS IN THE MIDDLE EAST

 (posted by frenchie)

Propaganda and Censorship go hand in hand with every conflict. It is a normal byproduct of war. As we try to shed light on what is really going in Israel and Palestine, since the "Flood of Al Aqsa" offensive by the Palestinians on October 7th of this year, we are going to try to analyse the facts despite the heavy censorship of Tsahal and its relays in the Western Press.

The adage about governing is that it needs cool heads, and a capability to set aside emotions. Unfortunately we have been bombarded by a relentless stream of high emotions and many unverified affirmations.

After a few weeks of observations and sniffing through piles of contradicting "truth", the first thing that came out, that was totally occulted, is the fact that the now infamous "Flood of al Aqsa" was not solely an operation planned and executed by Hamas alone, but it was in fact a coordinated attack led by a coalition of Palestinian movements. A unique event for the last 50 years.

For better or worse this is a huge change of paradigm. A unified front of resistance to Israel.

Until now, all the informations based on dispatches from western and arab press, led us to believe that the attack of October 7th was led and executed by Hamas. What is now slowly being revealed, is that the decision and planning of the operation was decided by a unitary council of the Palestinian resistance. Hamas, contributed the most to the operation, and provided the bulk of the fighters, yet several other groups participated: Islamic jihad (sunni, and khomeinist) , the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, PLFP (Marxist), and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine General Command :PFLP-CG.

While the Western Press reported outrageous war crimes committed by Hamas, like the story of 20 to 40 babies that had been beheaded. Many, like this one in particular were what is now called "Fake News" pushed by dubious characters, and relayed by partisan politicians. [1]

In this case, the revelation that this attack was no longer a jihadist operation led by the Muslim Brotherhood, but rather an attack by all the Palestinian movements in Gaza, is changing the perspective. In fact the only Palestinian group that did not participate was the West Bank Fatah of president Abbas, who is himself very ill. The goal of the operation, was not to kill Jews, as it was first reported, but rather to take hostages (civilians and military) and hold them for exchange for the Palestinians held in high security jails in Israel.[2] Hamas did kill many israelis in the process ( the updated figures now mention a high number of 2700 deads), but it is very clear that it was not the primary goal. The prisoners taken were not able to change clothes, in a symbolic move to remind how Egyptian Prisoners where treated by Israel at the end of the 1967 6 days war.

Another thing that is becoming clearer, is that the Israel Palestine conflict is not a conflict between two states. The State of Israel still does not have any official borders, the State of Palestine is yet to be recognized. This is actually a conflict between two populations. This situation is exceptional, specially because Palestinians are not represented by a State, and under international law, Israel has additional responsibilities as the occupying power. On May 15 of this year, The Gulf Operation Council, the Group of 77 [3], the League of Arab States, The Organization of the Islamic Cooperation, and China called for the suspension of Israel from the United Nations, since Israel fails to abide by its own commitments. [4]

1) Was Israel actually surprised by the "Flood of Al Aqsa" attack?  

From all the evidences that have surfaced since October 7th, the answer to this question is a definite NO. Despite the claims from the Netanyahu's coalition, Israel was not surprised by this attack, This attack had been prepared since the clashes of May 2021. According to CNN, Hamas had been training their fighters for a year and half. [5] They had build at least six training camps in Gaza, and shot videos of the training, that had been released several weeks before the attack. on March of 2023, Hamas sent a strong delegation to Russia. At that occasion, Hamas released a statement delivered to Russian Foreign Minister Serguei Lavrov: "our patience is running out and our anger is on the march"

In early 2023 Iran hosted a conference with the region's various independence groups: Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad, and Hamas. The meeting took place in Beirut, under the presidency of General Ismael Qaani, Commander of the Al Quds brigades of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards. The aim of the meeting was to reconcile these groups who had fought bitter battles, in Gaza, then in Syria. The meetings were made public in May of 2023. On this occasion, the Lebanese press commented extensively on the preparation of a united operation, that eventually took place on October 7th. What Iran did was to reconcile these warring factions.

On September 30th, the Egyptian Minister of intelligence, Kamel Abbas personally  called the Israeli Prime minister to warn him about a major operation by Hamas against Israel.[6] Egypt which is fighting an ongoing battle with the Muslim Brotherhood was very worried that Israel would let the conflict expend, which it did.

On October 5th, the CIA warned Mossad of a major operation to be launched by a coalition of  Palestinian groups. The US was particularly worried about the potential scale of that operation. According to the NY Times, the CIA's reports (still classified) of September 28 and October 5th, did not mention any new combat techniques to be used by the Palestinian Resistance. Shin Bet  (counter espionage) and Amman (military intelligence) were part of the meeting.

All this, points to the fact that Prime Minister Netanyahu lied to the citizens of Israel, when he declared to have been surprised by the Hamas attack.

2)Why did Israel allow for its Citizens to be killed?

There are several scenarios

Here are four possible theories:

*The settlers living illegally in the West Bank who are an important part of Netanyahu's government, were blind and deaf about the realities of Gaza.

*Benjamin Netanyahu never departed very far from his father's philosophy, and that of his mentor the Ukrainian Vladimir Jabotinsky. Their goal is the expulsion of the Palestinian from Gaza and the West Bank. It was Jabotinsky who declared:"Palestine a land without people for a people without a land"

* Netanyahu, reviving an old neocon's project, wanted to create an excuse to launch a conflict with Iran, and extend the influence of Israel in the region.[7]

*The American followers of the German fascist Leo Strauss, wanted to widen the conflict they started in Ukraine, to widen the theater against the Russians. 

These four scenarios are neither exhaustive, nor mutually exclusive.

3) A parallel to 9/11?      

The leaders of Israel have drawn a parallel between their official version of the October attack, with the official American version of the 9/11 attack. For them it is an opportunity for emphasizing the barbarity of the enemy, the surprise of the camp for good, and the justification for the wars to follow.

This parallel is further underlined by some similarities, which are used to focus on the justification of the retaliation. As Hamas reminds  everyone of its affiliation to the Muslim Brotherhood, Israel points to the fact that Osama Bin Laden was trained by Mohammad Qutb, the blood brother of  Sayyid Qutb the brain behind the Muslim Brotherhood.

The parallel does not hold well to scrutiny. It is very unlikely that the 9/11 attack was perpetrated by  Al Qaeda. US officials have never been willing or able to respond to the many objections of their official version. This is especially true in light of the many new evidences that have surfaced over the last 20 years, contradicting the Bush administration's narrative. Today more than 54% of the US public does not believe  the conclusions of the Presidential Commision of inquiry.

While it is still impossible to precisely point out who is responsible for the 9/11 attack, there is a group that continues to appear at several point of the inquiry: "The project for a new American Century". A particular individual is present every steps of the way: Mr Elliott Abrams. Guess who helped Benjamin Netanyahu perpetuate his regime change earlier this year, which the Israeli opposition called a Coup d'Etat? [7]None other than Mr Elliott Abrams.

So who is this individual?  He is a US citizen of Jewish faith, who has been very active in several republican administrations, starting with the Reagan administration. He was found guilty for lying under oath during the Iran-Contra Scandal inquiry. He also was very involved with the military junta's of Guatemala's General Efrain Rios Montt. [8]He was the architect of the slaughter of the Mayas who had organized in collective farms,under the  supervision of Mossad's Yitzhak Shamir. .[9] He is very closed to Bibi Netanyahu. Many, wondered about his involvement or not in the passivity of Israel prior to and at the beginning of the October 7 attack.

Strangely enough President Biden nominated this very controversial figure last July, to the United States Commission on Public Diplomacy. Otherwise meaning the overseeing of US Propaganda around the world

4)Who armed Hamas?.....

Setting up such a large and sophisticated operation, necessitate intelligence and resources that require the ressources of State entity. Most of the weapons used can be traced to the USA, Russia and North Korea. They easily navigate between Lebanon and Palestine. There are about three different possibilities.

* The West, following the lead of the neocons in Washington DC has insisted that this was the doing of Iran. The main proponent of this theory is Elliott Abrams. (surprise, surprise).[10] As I have mentioned on a prior article this goes against the Accord reached between the Khomenist and the Muslim Brotherhood back in the 1970s, in which they split the muslim world in two zone of influence, which  they have both abided to  ever since. While Iran is responsible for the reconciliation between all the Palestinian movements, they did not get involved in the "Flood of Al Aqsa" operation

*Another wild conspiracy advanced by the western media and the large majority of the neocons in DC, is the involvement of Russia. The Boogeyman of the US State department. Further there is no evidence Russia was involved in any way. At best it can be noted that Russia will certainly benefit from the diversion of western resources to Israel, which in turn relieves the pressure on the Russians in Ukraine. However Russia does not have the resources (yet) to engage on a second front. Plus, since its inception the Russian Federation has constantly fought against the Muslim Brotherhood, on her own territory, but also in Syria, Lybia and other theaters of operation. This was however the argument layed out by Vlodimir Zelensky,[11] and  Israel Defense Minister Yoav Galant during a video meeting with the NATO defense ministers, on October 11. [12]

*The last option is the responsibility of the Turkish Government. Here there are more evidence to support that  solution. Beside the Fact that President Erdogan was the one who organized the latest Hamas Congress, and that Turkey is harboring the main leaders of Hamas under the protection of the Turkish Secret Services. The Muslim brotherhood as a political organization is divided in several countries: the UK, Qatar, and Turkey. We know that the CIA was following closely the preparation of the operation. Following their reports, Anthony Blinken called his counterpart in Turkey, the former head of the Turkish Secret Services Hakan Fidan,[ during the night of October 6 to October 7 [13] that is to say at the same time that the Palestinians were getting ready to launch their operation, and while the Israeli were still asleep.Shortly after Blinken called Israel and the Fatah Leader, before calling Turkey twice more [14]. To add to this mounting evidence, we learned from Lloyd Austin during the NATO summit that the US had asked Turkey to intervene to facilitate the liberation of the hostages. [15]However he did not reveal if the request was made before or after the dispatch of the USS Gerald Ford task force.

5)What does international law says in regards to the Palestinian-Israeli differences?  

According to the United Nations, the Palestinians have the right to a Sovereign State within the 1967 borders with East Jerusalem as its Capital. According to this resolution, the following should occur.

*The State of Palestine has the right to have its own armed forces, which Israel strenuously oppose.

*East Jerusalem must be returned to the Palestinian Government as well as all post 1967  Jewish settlements.

*Right of Return. Every Palestinian, or Right Holder  have the right to return to Israel and settle in their home. A monetary compensation has to be put in place to repay any person whose house or property was recycled or destroyed.

Similarly, the United Nations declared that Israel has the right to a Sovereign State within the 1967 borders, with West Jerusalem as its Capital. Following the resolution, the following should occur.

*Israel has the right to have its own armed forces, which it does have already.

*All post 1967 Jewish settlements, and East Jerusalem must be returned to the State of Palestine. Israelis can remain to live in Palestine, but as foreign residents.

* Israel must grant the right of residence to each Palestinian or beneficiary , which were expelled in 1948, who makes the demand. Their property must be returned, or compensated for.

Another item, which is now clearly impossible is the provision that both States, Israeli and Palestinian should be federated within a bi national  supranational State, where each citizen would be granted equal voice. The original project planned to have an international peace force to be deployed between the two countries. This and several other options, like demilitarization seemed not to be viable at this time.

All parties and neutral observers realize that this international legal framework impose a considerable loss of territory and property to Israel, while it only requires an abandonment of claims for Palestine. Yet it is the only international settlement of the last 55 years for a lasting peace.

6) What is Israel reaction?

In August of 2023 Bibi Netanyahu's Coalition (which includes extremist messianic Jewish Supremacists very similar in their approach to the Muslim Supremacists of Hamas) changed the basic laws of Israel,  a State without constitution. This move was targeted at reducing the independence of the Judiciary. The country consequently saw a continuous series of mass demonstrations by Israelis. Most observers, including but not limited to the US press, concluded that the Government had enacted a Coup d'Etat.

Following the October 7th attack, Israel has no choice but to unite its ruling class. Former Prime Minister Yair Lapid demanded that the Jewish supremacist Ministers resign as a price for his participation, in a national unity government. Since their arrival in the government Intamar Ben Gvir (Minister of internal security) and Bezalel Smotrich (Minister of Finance) have supported 3 anti-arab pogroms, [16]most notably that of Hawara. [16]. However former Defense Minister and current leader of the opposition General Benny Ganz did not set the same conditions. Ultimately, Netanyahu included them both in the new government without dismissing the two extremist ministers. The newly created war council on the other hand did not include the two supremacist ministers.

This is in this environment that the military censorship was established. The censorship was so radical that the Minister of Information Distel Atbaryan resigned in the middle of the war. At this time, it has not been possible to establish the true composition of the war council. The only thing trickling out has been the fact that the deliberations have been very stormy. We know that the Minister of Defense General Yoav Gallant , is not at all on the same path as his predecessor General Benny Ganz. The Situation has been so chaotic that Netanyahu had to call General Gadi Eisenkot, the former Chief of Staff ( a supporter of massive bombings of civilians) to come in as an observer. The government right now is doing all it can to control the narrative, which refuse to talk about how each member of the war council is reacting to the original passivity of the Prime Minister. This has to be kept from the Israelis at large but also from the International community. Even President Herzog has been kept away from the meetings. The core of the debates appears to be the decision to either expel 2 Million Palestinians to Egypt, or to eradicate them all together. This is the main reason of the precipitated return of Anthony Blinken to Tel Aviv.

7) what can happen next?

International Law, and the great majority of the world recognize Israel right to self defense. This is exactly what Israel did for five days following the initial attack, while chasing, catching or destroying the attackers who had breached its territory. It is estimated that around 2000 of the Palestinian invaders were neutralized.

Subsequently Israel began the siege of Gaza, (but not the southern Gaza strip), and started bombarding Gaza City, in what amounts to Collective Punishment, which in itself is a war crime. While Israel has the right to follow Palestinian invaders, back into Gaza, the bombing of civilian buildings and the Siege of Gaza are war crimes. It appears that many Israelis, including the President are not aware of what is being done in their names.

In accord with the Arab league resolution taken after the 6 days war, Egypt closed its border with Gaza. As the Arab league supports the Palestinian demands since 1948 , it is logically opposed to any transfer of population or any naturalization. To add to this, Cairo is not intent on taking  the responsibility of 2 millions refugees, specially for the sake of Hamas, whose parent organization the Muslim Brotherhood is banned in Egypt.

At this time Israel has continued its bombing of civilian targets, including a Church and a refugee camp. It is massing its forces for a slow, methodical invasion of Gaza. This create a new escalation, which Hezbollah in Southern Lebanon dully noted, when they sent a few dozen missiles  as a warning, into the disputed area at the border between Israel and Lebanon. An escalation in Gaza could bring Hezbollah, Turkey, Jordan and Egypt into a conflict nobody wants, except for the radicals of both side.

The USA has deployed a carrier battle group to the region (which many consider as sitting ducks) and sent massive military supplies to Israel, while at the same time asking Israel to show restraint.

At this time, it appears that Israel might just continue its incursions in Gaza to target some of Hamas apparatus. Yet despite a heavy use of tanks and armored Bulldozers, IDF has encountered stiff resistance in the rubble they created. Casualties are mounting for Israel, which pose a huge problem for the general public. Behind the bombastic declarations of Netanyahu, the reality of a possible escalation that could be lethal for Israel is settling in. It appears more likely that after several large incursions, Israel might declare victory and return to is bases. All this despite the extremists in her government.

Meanwhile Gaza is counting about 10 000 civilian deaths. A sure way to create a new revenge cycle.

                 

[1] Source of dubious 'beheaded babies"claim is Israeli settler leader who incited for the eradication of palestinian village. Max Blumenthal and Alexander Rubinstein . The Grey Zone Oct.11 2023

[2] Top secret Hamas document shows terrorist intentionally targeted schools and youth centers. Anna Schecter NBC October 13 2023

[3] Israel participation in the UN could be suspended for non compliance with its commitment. International Newsletter #41 May 2023

[4]Hamas militants trained for its deadly attack in plain site, and less than a mile from Israel heavily fortified border. Paul Murphy, Tara John, Brent Swails, and Oren Lieberman. CNN Oct.12 2023 Hamas propaganda videos reveal stunning details leading up to attack on Israel Anderson Cooper 360. CNN Oct 13, 2023

[5]Egyptian General Intelligence Director warned Netanyahu about "something fierce from Gaza" Smadar Perry, YNet news Oct.10 2023.What went wrong? Questions emerge over Israel's Intelligence prowess after Hamas attack. Tia Goldenberg Associated Press Oct 9 2023

[6]l'incroyable imposture du Pentagate. Demi Lune 2002

[7]The American Right wing group, behind the conservative legal revolution in Israel. Nettanyel Slyomovics Haretz January 30 2023

[8]Israelis connection, not just guns for Guatemala George Black NACLA Report on the Americas,

[9] The El Mozote Massacre,Human Rights and global implications. Leigh Binford, University of Arizona Press 2016

[10] The attack of Hamas on Israel could not have happened without Iran Elliot Abrams, Newsweek Oct 12 2023

[11]In Brussels, Vlolodymyr Zelenzky called on world leaders to support the people of Israel. Presidency of Ukraine October 11 2023

[12] Israel does not stand alone. NATO October 12 2023

[13] Secretary Blinken call with Turkish Foreign Minister Fidan. Dpt of State Oct 6 2023

[14] Secretary Blinken call with Turkish Foreign Minister Fidan, Dpt of State Oct.7 2023

[15] Secretary Blinken call with Turkish Foreign Minister Fidan. Dpt of State Oct. 8 2023

[16] 400 Israeli Settlers destroy Palestinian Village, International Newsletter #30 March 3, 2023