Posted by Frenchie
It is very clear that Russia is winning the war in Ukraine. Russian forces are advancing in the southern, central and northern fronts in the Donbass. Russian advances are in keeping with the Russian way of war. They move methodically, carefully and with massive force. They use a combination of missiles, bombers, artillery and drones to condition the battlespace and degrade Ukrainian defensive positions. The Russians also use encirclement tactics (often referred to as a cauldron) so that the Ukrainians cannot retreat and are left with no choice but to surrender or die.
The Russian advance is based solely on tactics and strategic objectives. They are not operating on anyone's political schedule. When the Russians approach surround and eventually capture a major town or small city, it is because of its logistical significance as a railroad or a highway hub (or both) and as a critical link in Ukraine's supply network. Once the objective is achieved, the Russians have not only gained territory, but they have also cut off other Ukrainian defensive positions from resupply. Then this entire process is repeated with new objectives in sight.
The Russians are methodically moving toward capturing all Ukrainian territory east of the Dnipro river including the major cities of Kharkov, Kramatorsk and Slovyansk. The war will not be over until the Russians have also retaken Kherson and finally Odessa. The Russians will also soon move to retake portions of Russian territory south of Kursk that the Ukrainians invaded last summer. Again, the Russians are surging troops from Russia (not from the Ukrainian battlespace) and slowly creating a cauldron around the Ukrainian invaders. Their annihilation will come soon unless they surrender first.
Finally the Russians will complete the destruction of the Ukrainian power grid and energy system over the next two months, which will leave Ukrainians freezing this winter and trigger a mass migration of Ukrainian civilians to Romania, Hungary and Poland.
Russia will not negotiate with the dictator Zelensky; his electoral term having expired last May, and he has been ruling as a dictator under martial law ever since. So much for the US supporting "democracy" in Ukraine! There is no democracy left there. It's up to the Ukrainian Neo Nazi elites to depose Zelensky, choose a new leader and sue for peace or else fight to the bitter end.
Despite the significance of this protracted endgame, the impact on global oil prices will be small. Russia is working closely with Saudi Arabia and OPEC to limit output and maintain prices at the highest level the market will bear. The US and the EU foolishly maintain sanctions on Russian exports of oil and natural gas that have the effect of keeping prices high and thereby helping the Russians.
It is somewhat ironic that the fastest way to defeat Russian aspirations in Ukraine would be to open up exploration, drilling, fracking and new oil fields in the United States. If the US adopted a "drill baby drill" posture (including finishing the long delayed Keystone XL pipeline from Canada) the price of oil could be driven down to $40.00 per barrel or lower. That would starve Russia of the hard currency needed to support the war. Instead Biden has done the opposite, which has helped keep the Russian economy on a prosperous war footing.
Now that Trump has won his election, he will force Ukraine to negotiate with the Russians and will also open up US oil production in ways that reduce global prices and help bring the Russians to the negotiating table. Trump will also end the Green new deal scam. The Trump policies should help push oil prices toward a $40.00 per barrel or lower.
That being said, there is a force more powerful that the outcome of the war that will have the largest impact on global oil prices. That force is the coming synchronized global recession. This recession by itself and without reference to the war will push oil prices lower.
Conclusion: Oil prices are heading lower, not because of the war but because of a global recession. That drop in oil prices will be accelerated with Trump in power because of his "drill, baby drill policy, combined with his dismantling of the Green New Deal and coming to terms with Russia in Ukraine.
