Thursday, December 5, 2024

UNDERSTANDING ISRAEL'S WARS AGAINST LEBANON

 (by Frenchie)

Foreword

If you watch, listen or read the mainstream medias regarding Lebanon and Hezbollah for the last few months, you can easily be under the impression that poor little Israel has no other choice but to retaliate against the mean Hezbollah (considered as a terrorist organization by the majority of the western countries) and that they are doing so under their right of self defense. Yet the reality is very different from the accepted Israeli propaganda. Lets try to put this widening conflict in an historic perspective and attempt to comprehend what Lebanon has been facing and continue to be challenged on almost a daily basis.

(Summary) 





* Israeli terrorism and the civil war in Lebanon

* The Israeli-Lebanese war of 1982

* The assassination of Rafiq Hariri and the Israel war against Lebanon in 2006

* The invasion of Lebanon a one hundred years old zionist project 

To understand the deep roots of the new war of aggression against Lebanon by Israel, it is necessary to go back several decades and to be aware of the Israeli strategic objectives, as well as learning about the territorial expansion of the Jewish State, which includes Lebanon.

Israeli terrorism and the Lebanese Civil War.

The gradual autonomy of Palestinian organisations in Lebanon since 1968 created a situation not unlike that which had led to the"Black September" in 1970 in Jordan. Fatah which had taken refuge in Lebanon, is organizing operations against Israel, which in turn answer with aerial bombings on the Lebanese territory. Parallel to these events Israel arms and finances  Lebanese militias of different confessions (Christian, Druze, Shia and Sunni) that are opposed to the Palestinian presence in Lebanon dating back to the Nakbah of 1948. [1]

This strategy which consist of using christians against muslims in Lebanon with the intent to provoke a civil war and a partition of the country has been planned and put to paper by David Ben Gurion on February 27 1954 [2]


Ben Gurion

On May 16th 1954, Israel's Prime Minister, Moshe Sharett highlights the recommendations of the Chief of Staff of the IDF Moshe Dayan (famous for his eye patch)

" We  would only need to find an officer (Lebanese), even a simple major. We could easily win his cooperation, or purchase his loyalty in order for him to declare himself the savior of the Maronites. Then the Israeli Army would only need to enter the territory of Lebanon, occupy the necessary area, and install a Christian regime which would then ally itself with Israel. We could then annex the territories south of the Litani river, and all shall be for the best." 

This strategy will be applied to a T, 24 years later in 1978, when Israel took control of southern Lebanon, which ultimately would be handed over to a friendly militia established in 1976, who was in opposition to the Palestinian's presence in Lebanon. It was composed of Druzes, Shias, and Christians  equipped, trained and financed by Israel [3] 

On May 28th 1954 the Israeli Prime Minister wrote" the chief of staff endorsed a plan to put in place the targeting of a Lebanese officer willing to be our puppet in order to give the appearance that we answered a call for the liberation of Lebanon from its Muslim aggressors. [4] Civil war would ultimately explode from 1975 till 1990.

In his book "Rise and kill 1st" (The secret history of Israel's targeted assassinations) Israeli Military Chronicher Ronen Bergman revealed that between 1979 and 1982, the Israeli government created in Lebanon an organization who committed  numerous terrorist operations under false flags. A Mossad agent cited in Bergman's book recalls :" Many terrible things were done at the initiative of and with the support of Ariel Sharon. I have planned and at times participated in assassination operations undertaken by Israel. "Yet here we are talking about mass slaughters, with the only goal of creating chaos and panic among civilians. How do you justify sending bomb laden donkeys inside market squares and detonating them?" [5] In a New York Times article published January 23rd 2018 [6] Ronen Bergman reveals that very high ranking Israeli decision makers launched a campaign on a grand scale, of bombings with booby trapped, cars which led to the killing of countless numbers of innocent Palestinian and Lebanese civilians.

The main objective of this secret operation was to provoke the PLO (Palestinian Liberation Organization) to retaliate with bombings of their own in order to justify an Israeli invasion of Lebanon. These informations reported in great details in Bergman's book are sourced from testimonies given by Israeli officials directly involved, or by others with knowledge related to their positions.

Bergman recalls that in 1979, General Rafale Eitan, the Chief of Staff of Tsahal, launched with the help of General Avidgor Ben-Gal commander of Israel's Northern Region, the creation of a group whose mission was to execute terrorist strikes in Lebanese Territory with the approval of Eitan. Ben-Gal  recruited  general Meir Dagan (Israel best expert in special operations at that time) a man who later became the head of MOSSAD. The 3 of them created the Lebanese Front for the Liberation from Foreigners (LFLFF) . General  David Agmon, one of the key actor of this project declared the objective...


Meir Dagan

" The goal was to create chaos among Palestinians and Syrians in Lebanon, without showing our involvement, and to give them the feeling that they were constantly under threat, while re-enforcing their sense of insecurity"

In order to succeed Eitan, Ben-Gal, and Dagan recruited local Lebaneses who did not like Palestinians. During the period of 1973 until 1983 the "Front" killed thousands of individuals.

Bergman revealed that the operation often used explosive hidden in oil containers or in food cans put together in a metal shop located in Kibutz Mahanayim where Ben-Gal resided. These relatively small containers were then smuggled back into Lebanon. Rapidly, bombs started exploding inside the homes of PLO supporters in South Lebanon, killing all the residents. Later offices of the PLO were targeted. Bombs were also planted inside and around refugee camps causing substantial damages and numerous victims. Starting mid September of 1981, the use of booby trapped cars, motorcycles, bicycles and donkeys started exploding on a regular basis in palestinian neighborhood in Beirut and several other cities around Lebanon.

The book mentions in particular, bombings in Beirut and Sidon at the beginning of October and notes that during the short period of December 1981 no less than 18 bombs exploded near offices of the PLO, or in areas with heavy palestinian presence, causing a high number of casualties, claiming that an unknown group named the Lebanese Front for the Liberation from Foreigners (LFLFF) was claiming responsibility for the attacks. Ariel Sharon who was at that time the Minister of Defense of Israel, was hoping that these operations would force Yasser Arafat to attack Israel. In which case Tsahal would of course retaliate by invading Lebanon. The other hopeful result was that the PLO would take revenge against the Phalange, which  would then allow Israel to intervene as a defender and ally of the Christians, a strategy corresponding exactly to Israeli prime minister Moshe Sharett vision of 1954.

The Israeli/Lebanese conflict of 1982

The presence of the Palestinian organizations inside Lebanon gave the Israeli leaders the excuse, to implement their plan formulated for the take over of South Lebanon, all the way to the Litani River. This plan dated back to the birth of the revisionist zionist political movement. [7] In fact Israel will baptize their operation with the name of said river: "Operation Litani" in 1978 when they defacto  seized control of Southern Lebanon. A deployment of Blue Helmets UNIFIL (UN Interim Force in Lebanon) was supposed to stabilize the region, despite the PLO continuing occasional rocket launches into Israel. In 1982 Ariel Sharon wants to intervene in Southern Lebanon to diminish the operational capacities of the PLO; while his Prime Minister Menahem Begin wants to destroy the PLO to lessen the Palestinian claims in the West Bank and Gaza who are experiencing an upkeep  of mass protests since March.[8] 

Following Ben Gurion's Strategy designed in 1954, Begin wants in 1982 "A signed Peace Treaty with Lebanon, if Christians control the country" [9] Still Israel needs an excuse to attack Lebanon, an opportunity the PLO refuse to give Israel.  "The leadership of the PLO has multiplied its instructions to its own forces, forbidding any action which would give Israel a pretext." 

 It is within this context that the Israeli ambassador to London, Shlomo Argov is the victim of an attack after a diplomatic reception on June 3rd 1982 [10] The investigation shows that the operation was put together by a sleeping cell of the Abu Nidal group [11] By then the order giver is still unknown. Several theories are brought forward. The most credible is that of Israel. This option answers the question of the calendar, since the order was given on May 25th, but it seems difficult to phantom that an Israeli  ambassador would have been selected as a target... Another version is of a less radical option , with a manipulation leading to a vague provocation without goal, a sort of general order [12] In fact at the same time of the operation Abu Nidal is in Poland, therefore the order would have had to come from one of his number 2, particularly one who had been accused often in the past to have been easily manipulated by the Israeli services[13]

Not withstanding, Israel had its excuse now.


Ariel Sharon

Making absolutely no distinction between Abu Nidal and the PLO, Tsahal mobilized its available forces, which amounted to 76k men who then entered Lebanon June 6th 1982, reaching Beirut which they lay siege to , following a bombing by the Israeli AF against West Beirut on June 4th, which killed 60 and wounded 270. In August of 1982 after 70 days  of constant bombings by Israel, an accord is reached following an International Peace initiative to allow for the evacuation  (demanded by Israel) of all members and leaders of the PLO, towards several countries, most notably Tunisia and Sudan which is finally achieved by September 1st 1982.

The Lebanese President, Maronite Christian, Bachir Gemayel who is favorable to a non aggression agreement with Israel, is assassinated on September 14th 1982. Christian Phalangists in coordination with Tsahal (which has continued its bombardments of the refugee camp of Chatilla, and its surrounding neighborhoods) are planning their revenge. They enter the camps of Sabra and Chatilla (from the 16th  of September until the 18th) as soon as the Israelis stopped  the bombing. During these two days they systematically massacred  1390 people, including women and children, to which you must add several hundred combattants. [14]


Bashir Gemayel

Israel who had planned to be seen as liberators, instead endup being perceived as occupiers. Shia armed groups are being formed, and they later will constitute the nucleus of what will become Hezbollah. (Founded in June of 1982), as a resistance movement against Israel invasion. The liberation of South Lebanon would become the principal goal of these armed groups. Ultimately they would determine Israel as their main mortal enemy. Hezbollah ended up chasing Israel's army out of South Lebanon- except for the Sheeba Farms, and a few small areas south of the "Blue Line" on the 25th of May 2000 [15]


The assassination of Rafiq Hariri  and the Israeli War against Lebanon, 2006.

Businessman and former head of the council of Ministers of Lebanon, Rafiq Harriri died on February 15th 2005, in the explosion of a car bomb. At that time, and before any serious inquiry was launched, the collective West pointed the finger towards Syria. As a consequence, the Syrian Army (which had acted as a buffer between the warring parties) left the Lebanese territory two months later, in April 2005, ending almost 3 decades of presence in Lebanon.


Rafiq Hariri

In reality the death of Rafiq Hariri was only a pretext. In fact a UN resolution, at the initiative of the USA (under George W Bush) and France (under Jacques Chirac) had been adopted by the UN security council (resolution 1559) prior to the assassination. It planned, beside several other issues, the evacuation of all foreign troops out of Lebanon. Namely, Syrian troops in charge of civilians security under the Taef agreements, and Israeli armed forces occupying the so called Shebaa Farms, which is the main regional water reservoir for the area.

The admitted goal of the USA was to prevent Syrian support for the reelection of President Emile Lahud. For Jacques Chirac it was the "common approach with the US for the stability for the region. Maybe we did not have exactly the same intentions" [16] . According to some analysts, Chirac was trying to prevent an American military intervention, while re-enforcing the political power of his friend Rafiq Hariri, a close ally of the Saudis [17] in the struggle with Emile Lahud, an ally of Hezbollah. 

After all, one of the details of UN resolution 1559, was the prevention of another mandate of President Emile Lahud. The main reason being his opposition to the Syrian evacuation, and the disarmament of all militias, including that of Hezbollah.


Hezbollah

Hezbollah was at the time (and still is today) the only real guarantee of the security and territorial integrity of the Lebanese territory. Despite the Syrian pullout, Emile Lahud  saw his presidential mandate extended, by a very large majority. Six countries had officially declared that resolution 1559 amounted to an ingerence into the internal affairs of Lebanon.  These countries were: Algeria, Brazil, China, Pakistan, the Phillipines, and Russia.

During the Syrian military pullout, the head of the Lebanese Army, General Michel Suleiman, "thanked Syria for sending its army to stop the partition of the country ", during the civil war 1975/1990 [18]. A partition project whose 1st planner had been David Ben Gurion in the 1950s. In 1982 a High ranking administrator of the Israeli Foreign Ministry, Oded Yinon updated Ben Gurion's project in a document titled: "A strategy for Israel in the 1980s"  [19]

From all indications, the untimely death of Rafiq Hariri, and the following western propaganda, had only one objective: weakening Lebanon, while opening a new opportunity for a new Israeli invasion. On July 12th 2006 Tsahal attacked Lebanon. In that regards, both John Mersheimer and Stephen Walt reported that: "the Israeli had informed the Bush administration well in advance of their intention to attack Hezbollah, and that Washington had given them the green light. [20]

The Israeli Global Strategist Gerald Steinberg confirmed this fact during the war, in July of 2006. "Of all the wars Israel has undertaken since 1948, it was the best prepared one. In more ways than one, we started  planning for this war as early as May 2000, right after our pullback from Southern Lebanon. It became apparent to us, that the international community did not have the will to stop Hezbollah to build stocks of weapons to confront us. The military campaign planned to last 3 weeks, which we are witnessing now was designed as is, in 2004. It has been now 2 years since we ran exercises and simulations to finalize every details of the operation" [21]

The Israelis started by bombing many infrastructures in southern Lebanon and in Beirut itself, targeting both civilians and combatants without distinction. [22] Aurelie Daher emphasize in her book Hezbollah mobilization and power : "The majority of civilian casualties during the 33 days war were killed during bombing runs which targeted neither Hezbollah, nor their supply network. Tens of thousands of Lebanese civilians are being targeted, in the same way that the Cadre of Hezbollah are targeted." It looks like the Israeli Army finally recognized in a semi official way that :" The institutions of the Lebanese State as well as Lebanese civilians were also targeted in a logic of both collective punishment and as a way to put pressure on Hezbollah".[23]

During that period Israel used 3000 bombs a day while Hezbollah used a total of 3900 rockets for the whole three months of the conflict. [24] Despite these facts, the security council of the UN will only target Hezbollah for sanctions in a resolution put forward on September 15th 2006. Resolution 1701 banned any supply of arms and materiel, it also banned services to entities or individuals located in Lebanon. [25] clearly the objective was to weaken Hezbollah quite substantially .

On another topic, the inquiry launched into the assassination of Rafiq Hariri by the International Criminal Court (ICC) at the Hague, which originally had tried to find proofs about the alleged culpability of the Syrian State, or at least find proofs establishing the guilt of Hezbollah, coincidentally rendered its findings on August 18th 2020, exactly two weeks after the suspicious explosion which leveled the Port of Beirut. After a trial that lasted six years, the French daily Le Figaro  reported that the Court found the principal suspect, Salim Ayyash 56yo guilty of the suicide attack in Beirut which had killed 22 people, including Rafiq Harriri.  While underlining that the attack was politically motivated, the ICC affirmed that it had not found any proof , allowing to establish a direct connection between the explosion, and the Hezbollah or its Syrian ally. The only thing the Tribunal was able to establish was an individual presumed to be a member of Hezbollah. 

Despite the total absence of any glimmer of proof pointing to Hezbollah, Saudi Arabia, a supporter of Israel called for sanctions against Hezbollah. [26]

German criminologue Jurgen Cain Kulbel (former investigator for the criminal police of the German Democratic Republic, turned investigative journalist after the German reunification) published in 2006 a counter investigation of the work realized by the UN commission, led by the former German prosecutor Detlev Melhis into the assassination of Rafiq Hariri. He instead followed the Israeli connection. His detailed work, heavily influenced the Lebanese General Security investigators. In June 2006, they subsequently  arrested seven individuals suspected of acting for the Mossad. They established their participation into four political assassinations, and continued to look for their eventual connection with the attack against Rafiq Hariri. [27]


Invading Lebanon, a century old Zionist project.

A constant idea of the zionist policies, ever since the establishment of a Jewish homeland in Palestine has been territorial expansion. Lebanon has always been part of the territories set upon as a target by the Zionist entity.


As far back as 1918 in a book published in Yiddish, David Ben Gurion the founding father of Israel, describe the borders of the future state as including all of Palestine, southern Lebanon all the way to the Litani river, part of Syria, a large part of the Jordan kingdom, as well as the Peninsula of the Sinai.[28] Rabbi Fishman, who represented the Orthodox party Mizrahi in the executive committee of the Jewish Agency, declared in his testimony in front of the UN Special Investigative Committee, on June 9th 1947: "The Promised Land includes all territories between the Egyptian River to the Euphrate, and includes part of Lebanon and Syria" [29] 

If Hezbollah did not exist. the southern part of Lebanon would still be occupied by Israel, just as the Golan Heights and the West Bank.

Notes

[1]  Page 229 The Israel Palestinian conflict in 100 questions. J.C Lescure, Taillandier 2018,2021

[2]  Confidential letter of David Ben Gurion dated January 27, 1954. Published in 1979 as an annex to his memoirs, and in the memoirs of Moshe Sharett. Tel Aviv, Om Oved Editions 1969, 1974

[3] Page 229 The Israel Palestinian conflict in 100 questions. J.C Lescure, Taillandier 2018,2021

[4] Moshe Sharett, Personal Journal (8 tomes) Tel Aviv,  Maariv Editions 1978. Cited passages by Le Monde Diplomatique: An old Israel dream: "Even a simple Major" September 1982, Page 13

[5] Remi Brulin, "When Israel created a terrorist group to create chaos in Lebanon" Orient XXI, June 20/2018. https://orientxxi.info/lu-vu-entend...

[6] Ronen Bergman, "How Arafat eluded Israel assassination machine" New Yor Times, Jan.21 2018 https://nytimes.com/2018/01/23/...

[7]Y. Hindi, Comprendre le conflit Israelo Palestinian, Kontre Kulture 2024

[8] Jean Claude Lescure The Israeli Palestinian conflict in 100 questions, p230

[9] Jean Claude Lescure. The Israeli Palestinian conflict in 100 questions, p230

[10]Henry Laurens, The Palestinian Question, Tome 4, Fayard Editions 2011, page 809

[11] It is the Revolutionary Council Fatah, created in October 1974, following the split with the historical Fatah of Yasser Arafat

[12] Henry Laurens, The Palestinian Question, Tome 4, p 810

{13] Henry Laurens, The Palestinian Question, Tome 4, p 810

[14]  Henry Laurens, The Palestinian Question, Tome 5, p 49-52

[15] It is in fact a demarcation line between the two countries, according to the armistice agreement of 1949. It is not the Internationaly recognized Border Line, known as the Paulet-Newcombe Line of 1923. Seven Lebanese villages are located south of the Blue Line: Malkiya, Kadas, Nabi, Yusha, Hunin, Saliha, Tarbikha and Abeil el Qamh.  "22 years ago Israel left Southern Lebanon in shame" Fatma Bendhau, Anadolu Agency May25 2022. https://www.aa.com.tr/fr/monde/il-

[16] Interview of Jacques Chirac July 14th 2006

[17] https://monde-diplomatique.fr/1....

[18] https://www.nouvelobs.com/monde/200.....

[19] Oded Yinon " A strategy for Israel in the Nineteen Eighties" Published by the Association of Arab-American University Graduates, Inc , Belmont, Massachussetts, 1982 Special document #1 (ISBN 0-937694-56-8)

[20] Stephen Walt and John  Mersheimer: "The Israel Lobby and US foreign Policy" September 2 2008

[21] Cited in Matthew Kallman "Israel set war plan more than a year ago": Strategy was put in motion as Hezbollah began increasing its military strength" San Francisco Chronicle (online) 7/21/2006

[22] https://www.lesclesdumoyenorient.com

[23]Aurelie Daher, le Hezbollah, mobilisation et pouvoir. Paris, PUF collection Proche Orient, 2014, p291

[24] L'Orient-le-Jour, Guerre de juillet 2006, deja 10ans. Quel Bilan, Quelles Lecons? 7/12/2016 https://www.lorientlejour.com/article...

[25] https://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriSer....

[26] https://www.lefigaro.fr/flash-actu/...

[27] Mordakte Hariri, Unterdruckte Spuren im Libanon, Edition Zeitgeschichte Band34, 2006 Assassination of Hariri no proofs against Syria, interview of Jurgen Cain Kulbel by Jurgen Elsasser, Junge Welt April 11 2006

[28] Benny Morris, Righteous Victims, p 75 cited by  Walt and Mersheimer "The Israel Lobby and US foreign policy" page 418 # 60

[29] Oded Yinon " A strategy for Israel in the Nineteen Eighties"  Published by the Association of Arab-American University Graduates, inc, Belmont MA 1982

Concluding with current information.

As it is often the case, the events bypass us at great speed. As I finished putting this essay to paper, events in Syria have spiraled into a whirlwind of events, few of us foresaw.  While many events depicted here can find parallels into some of the tactical acts we are experiencing in 2024, IE: the fight to a standstill by Hezbollah, the aerial bombings of the IAF, etc, the complexity and speed of things happening as you read this, will need an analysis which will need time to put together. Beware of easy and simplistic explanations.

Sunday, November 24, 2024

UPDATE ON UKRAINE, AND GLOBAL OIL PRICES

Posted by Frenchie




It is very clear that Russia is winning the war in Ukraine. Russian forces are advancing in the southern, central and northern fronts in the Donbass. Russian advances are in keeping with the Russian way of war. They move methodically, carefully and with massive force. They use a combination of missiles, bombers, artillery and drones to condition the battlespace and degrade Ukrainian defensive positions. The Russians also  use encirclement tactics (often referred to as a cauldron) so that the Ukrainians cannot retreat and are left with no choice but to surrender or die.

The Russian advance is based solely on tactics and strategic objectives. They are not operating on anyone's political schedule. When the Russians approach surround and eventually  capture a major town or small city, it is because of its logistical significance as a railroad or a highway hub (or both) and as a critical link in Ukraine's supply network. Once the objective is achieved, the Russians have not only gained territory, but they have also cut off other Ukrainian defensive positions from resupply. Then this entire process is repeated with new objectives in sight.

The Russians are methodically moving toward capturing all Ukrainian territory east of the  Dnipro  river including the major cities of Kharkov, Kramatorsk and Slovyansk. The war will not be over until the Russians have also retaken Kherson and finally Odessa. The Russians will also soon move to retake portions of Russian territory south of Kursk that the Ukrainians invaded last summer. Again, the Russians are surging troops from Russia (not from the Ukrainian  battlespace) and slowly creating a cauldron around the Ukrainian invaders. Their annihilation will come soon unless they surrender first.

Finally the Russians will complete the destruction of the Ukrainian power grid and energy system over the next two months, which will leave Ukrainians freezing this winter and trigger a mass migration of Ukrainian civilians to Romania, Hungary and Poland.

Russia will not negotiate with the dictator Zelensky; his electoral term having expired last May, and he has been ruling as a dictator under martial law ever since. So much for the US supporting "democracy" in Ukraine! There is no democracy left there. It's up to the Ukrainian Neo Nazi elites to depose Zelensky, choose a new leader and sue for peace or else fight to the bitter end.

Despite the significance of this protracted endgame, the impact on global oil prices will be small. Russia is working closely with Saudi Arabia and OPEC to limit output and maintain prices at the highest level the market will bear. The US and the EU foolishly maintain sanctions on Russian exports of oil and natural gas that have the effect of keeping prices high and thereby helping the Russians.

It is somewhat ironic that the fastest way to defeat Russian aspirations in Ukraine would be to open up exploration, drilling, fracking and new oil fields in the United States. If the US adopted a "drill baby drill" posture (including finishing the long delayed Keystone XL pipeline from Canada) the price of oil could be driven down to $40.00 per barrel or lower. That would starve Russia of the hard currency needed to support the war. Instead Biden has done the opposite, which has helped keep  the Russian economy on a prosperous war footing.

 Now that Trump has won his election, he will force Ukraine to negotiate with the Russians and will also open up US oil production in ways that reduce global prices and help bring the Russians to the negotiating table. Trump will also end the Green new deal scam. The Trump policies should help push oil prices toward a $40.00 per barrel or lower.

That being said, there is a force more powerful that the outcome of the war that will have the largest impact on global oil prices. That force is the coming synchronized global recession. This recession by itself and without reference to the war will push oil prices lower. 

Conclusion: Oil prices are heading lower, not because of the war but because of a global recession. That drop in oil prices will be accelerated with Trump in power because of his "drill, baby drill policy, combined with his dismantling of the Green New Deal and coming to terms with Russia in Ukraine.

 

Sunday, June 2, 2024

REVISITING THE DEATH OF EBRAHIM RAISI & HOSSEIN AMIR_ABDOLLAHIAN


 Posted by Frenchie:


An helicopter carrying several Iranian dignitaries crashed in the Dizmar Forest, on May 19th of this year, not far from the Aziri Border. All its occupants: pilots and passengers died. Among the deads, President Ebrahim Raisi, as well as Iran's Foreign Minister, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian. 

The helicopter was a vintage American model: Bell 212. Upon first reports it did not transmit any distress signal, and strangely enough its transponder was turned off. The GPS of the occupants cell phones did not allow for them to be located. A very loud explosion was heard in several surrounding villages. Iranian security services immediately contacted Turkish authorities who deployed several "Akinci" drones to locate the crash site, within 12 hours after the initial report. The aircraft was part of a convoy of three helicopters. The other two aircrafts did not report any incidents. They did not witness the presidential helicopter mishap. According to security procedures in place, members of the government are to be separated aboard different vehicles while traveling. Why these procedures were not adhered to , has so far not been explained. This incident happens at a time when Iran and the United States are conducting advanced negotiations both in Oman and in New York.

Meanwhile, Israeli leaders responsible for the April 1st, Iranian diplomatic compound bombing in Damascus which led to the death of General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, continue to present Teheran as the number one public enemy to world peace. In reaction to the bombing of its consulate and subsequent death of the commander of its Al Quds force, Iran attacked Israel on April 13th and 14th, demonstrating its capacity to strike targets of its choice within Israel, with hypersonic missiles without Tel Aviv and/or its allies being able to stop them.

The crash comes at a time of rapprochement between Iran and Azerbaijan, which until recently had excellent relations with Israel.

Turkey foiled a coup d'Etat and an assassination attempt against president Erdogan, less than a week before the disappearance of President Raisi

Ebrahim Raisi was known to be a rigid character, and totally devoted to the leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, whose instructions he strictly enforced. He was often criticized by its opponents for his lack  of initiative and his inability to grasp anything about the domestic economy. While he has shown great harshness against the women's movement, it never reached the cold savagery with which he cracked down against the communists at the early stages of the Iranian Revolution. 

In foreign affairs he unconditionally supported the Shiites militias throughout the Middle East, as the guide of the revolution instructed. He made some notable progresses by having Iran join the BRICS, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), as well as the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) as full member of these organizations. Last but not least, he was on the verge on concluding a new agreement with the USA, to the great displeasure of Tel Aviv.

As for the Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian he was appreciated by all his interlocutors. He had successfully re-established relations with almost all Arab leaders whose language he spoke. 

In the interim, Vice President Mohammad Mokhber will serve as president until the June 28th Presidential elections, while Ali Bagheri will serve as foreign minister until then.

As of now, it is still unclear which candidates will be allowed to run for office. Candidates can be disqualified for non conformity with Islam by six of the theologians of the Council of Guardians of the Constitution, who are appointed by the Guide of the Revolution Ayatollah Khamenei. Candidates can also be removed for non compliance with the Constitution by a unanimous vote of all the 12 members of said council.

The main potential candidates for the Iranian Presidential Elections are:

*Mahmoud Ahmadinejad : Former President of the Islamic Republic

*Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf: Current speaker of the Majis ( Parliament), he is a strong advocate for the poorer in the population.

*Ali Larijani: Former Speaker of the Majis (Strong supporter of the Islamic Revolution).

* Mohammad Moklaber: Current interim President (supports the Middle Class and small businesses)

*Mohsen Rezai: Former commander of the Revolutionary Guards, Intelligence Corps.

*Hassan Rouhani: Former President of the Islamic Republic. Support Free Traders.

*Ali Shamkhani: Former Head of the Supreme National Security Council. (recently fired for having allowed a British spy to penetrate his entourage.) Played a central role in the rapprochement with Saudi Arabia.

It is almost certain that both Ahmadinejad and Rouhani shall not be allowed to run, because they are too independent from the Supreme Leader. 

Washington almost immediately after the incident denied any involvement in the crash. Suspicions that weighed on the United States quickly shifted to Israel.

Meanwhile, Chinese Leader Xi Jinping wrote: " The tragic death of Ebrahim Raisi is a great loss for the Iranian people, and the Chinese people have also lost a great friend. The Chinese people and its government attach great importance to the traditional friendship between Iran and China. We believe that the combined efforts of both sides will allow for the continuation and consolidation of the Chinese-Iranian strategic partnership".

In this context the Chinese Foreign Minister, Mr Wang Yi called on each and every member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) to strengthen their cooperation in the face of terrorism, separatism and religious extremism. Everyone survival is at stake Mr Wang added.