Sunday, June 2, 2024

REVISITING THE DEATH OF EBRAHIM RAISI & HOSSEIN AMIR_ABDOLLAHIAN


 Posted by Frenchie:


An helicopter carrying several Iranian dignitaries crashed in the Dizmar Forest, on May 19th of this year, not far from the Aziri Border. All its occupants: pilots and passengers died. Among the deads, President Ebrahim Raisi, as well as Iran's Foreign Minister, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian. 

The helicopter was a vintage American model: Bell 212. Upon first reports it did not transmit any distress signal, and strangely enough its transponder was turned off. The GPS of the occupants cell phones did not allow for them to be located. A very loud explosion was heard in several surrounding villages. Iranian security services immediately contacted Turkish authorities who deployed several "Akinci" drones to locate the crash site, within 12 hours after the initial report. The aircraft was part of a convoy of three helicopters. The other two aircrafts did not report any incidents. They did not witness the presidential helicopter mishap. According to security procedures in place, members of the government are to be separated aboard different vehicles while traveling. Why these procedures were not adhered to , has so far not been explained. This incident happens at a time when Iran and the United States are conducting advanced negotiations both in Oman and in New York.

Meanwhile, Israeli leaders responsible for the April 1st, Iranian diplomatic compound bombing in Damascus which led to the death of General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, continue to present Teheran as the number one public enemy to world peace. In reaction to the bombing of its consulate and subsequent death of the commander of its Al Quds force, Iran attacked Israel on April 13th and 14th, demonstrating its capacity to strike targets of its choice within Israel, with hypersonic missiles without Tel Aviv and/or its allies being able to stop them.

The crash comes at a time of rapprochement between Iran and Azerbaijan, which until recently had excellent relations with Israel.

Turkey foiled a coup d'Etat and an assassination attempt against president Erdogan, less than a week before the disappearance of President Raisi

Ebrahim Raisi was known to be a rigid character, and totally devoted to the leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, whose instructions he strictly enforced. He was often criticized by its opponents for his lack  of initiative and his inability to grasp anything about the domestic economy. While he has shown great harshness against the women's movement, it never reached the cold savagery with which he cracked down against the communists at the early stages of the Iranian Revolution. 

In foreign affairs he unconditionally supported the Shiites militias throughout the Middle East, as the guide of the revolution instructed. He made some notable progresses by having Iran join the BRICS, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), as well as the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) as full member of these organizations. Last but not least, he was on the verge on concluding a new agreement with the USA, to the great displeasure of Tel Aviv.

As for the Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian he was appreciated by all his interlocutors. He had successfully re-established relations with almost all Arab leaders whose language he spoke. 

In the interim, Vice President Mohammad Mokhber will serve as president until the June 28th Presidential elections, while Ali Bagheri will serve as foreign minister until then.

As of now, it is still unclear which candidates will be allowed to run for office. Candidates can be disqualified for non conformity with Islam by six of the theologians of the Council of Guardians of the Constitution, who are appointed by the Guide of the Revolution Ayatollah Khamenei. Candidates can also be removed for non compliance with the Constitution by a unanimous vote of all the 12 members of said council.

The main potential candidates for the Iranian Presidential Elections are:

*Mahmoud Ahmadinejad : Former President of the Islamic Republic

*Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf: Current speaker of the Majis ( Parliament), he is a strong advocate for the poorer in the population.

*Ali Larijani: Former Speaker of the Majis (Strong supporter of the Islamic Revolution).

* Mohammad Moklaber: Current interim President (supports the Middle Class and small businesses)

*Mohsen Rezai: Former commander of the Revolutionary Guards, Intelligence Corps.

*Hassan Rouhani: Former President of the Islamic Republic. Support Free Traders.

*Ali Shamkhani: Former Head of the Supreme National Security Council. (recently fired for having allowed a British spy to penetrate his entourage.) Played a central role in the rapprochement with Saudi Arabia.

It is almost certain that both Ahmadinejad and Rouhani shall not be allowed to run, because they are too independent from the Supreme Leader. 

Washington almost immediately after the incident denied any involvement in the crash. Suspicions that weighed on the United States quickly shifted to Israel.

Meanwhile, Chinese Leader Xi Jinping wrote: " The tragic death of Ebrahim Raisi is a great loss for the Iranian people, and the Chinese people have also lost a great friend. The Chinese people and its government attach great importance to the traditional friendship between Iran and China. We believe that the combined efforts of both sides will allow for the continuation and consolidation of the Chinese-Iranian strategic partnership".

In this context the Chinese Foreign Minister, Mr Wang Yi called on each and every member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) to strengthen their cooperation in the face of terrorism, separatism and religious extremism. Everyone survival is at stake Mr Wang added.

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